市场展望-2024年8月29日

Market Perspectives August 29, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT September 2024 Corn Futures.............................................................................................. 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 9Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ............................................................................... 10DDGS Comments..................................................................................................................................... 10Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 11Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 11U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 13Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 13Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 13Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 14 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook The Pro Farmer Crop Tour wrapped up with results from Iowa and Minnesota. Iowa’s corn yieldpotential set a new record high for the crop tour at 192.79 bu/ac, well above the 2023 tour results of182.8 bu/ac and the 3-year average of 185.79 bu/ac. USDA’s latest estimate is 209 bu/ac, which wouldalso be a record yield. Minnesota, the fourth largest corn producing state in the U.S. was an outlier inthis year’s crop tour. The crop tour projected 164.9 bu/ac for Minnesota, down 16.44 bu/ac from lastyear’s crop tour and down 18.16 bu/ac from the tour’s 3-year average for Minnesota. USDA’s latestforecast for Minnesota was 185 bu/ac, the same as last year. Based on the crop tour, USDA may need toreduce the state corn yield for Minnesota once more data is collected. Based on the data from all six states covered by the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, the tour forecasts a total U.S.corn crop of 14.979 billion bushels on a national average yield of 181.1 bu/ac. This compares to thelatest USDA corn yield of 183.1 bu/ac and national corn production of 15.146 billion bushels. Cornprospects east of the Mississippi River are phenomenal according to crop tour participants. For many,the best they have ever seen. Prospects west of the Mississippi River are more variable with too muchrain in northwest Iowa and southern Minnesota and some stress due to dryness and heat in the south-central Plains states. For soybeans, the crop tour forecasts national soybean yield of 54.9 bu/ac and national soybeanproduction of 4.74 billion bushels, 151 million bushels more than USDA’s latest estimate of 4.589 billionbushels. And, barring some disaster, the 2024 crop is set up well to finish strong for both corn and soybeans. Weekly export shipments were 35.2 million bushels of corn and 15.1 million bushels of soybeans. With1.5 weeks left in the 2023/24 export marketing year, corn needs 40 million bushels in shipments to meetUSDA’s projections and soybeans need 26 million more bushels to be shipped. Corn will likely exceedthis amount and USDA will ultimately raise current year exports once final export shipment numbers areknown. For soybeans, it is “wait and see”. The potential is still there to meet USDA’s exportexpectations, but it would not be surprising if the final numbers fell a few million bushels short of thecurrent estimate. Despite the fall of the dollar, which is logically favorable to U.S. exports, the fall in prices continues to bedriven by competition from the Black Sea region. In the case of wheat, the Black Sea exporting countriesdominate international sales