市场展望——2024年12月12日

Market Perspectives December 12, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT March 2025 Corn Futures ..................................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 6FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 12Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 12Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 12 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook Somewhat unexpectedly, the USDA decided to jump its US 2024/25 corn demand outlooks dramatically,this month. This year’s overseas demand (sales) has been quite aggressive with the 2024/25 sales pace335 million bushels ahead of last year. This past fall’s strong ethanol output has already advanced thisyear’s domestic demand by 25-30 million higher in the first 2 months of year vs 2023. Overall, the tradewas looking for just a 32 million bushels lowering of US corn stocks. This month’s 200 million bushelsmaller carryover (1.738 billion bushels) is a positive step in the right direction, but this year’s endingsstocks probably need to decline to 1.6 billion bushels or lower for a major long-term change in corn’sprice outlook. If a smaller US final 2024 corn yield comes to pass next month, that would also help thebullish case for corn. With no US wheat crop production estimate similar to corn and soybeans this month, the US marketwasn’t expecting any balance sheet changes in the December report. However, the World Boardincreased US exports by 25 million bushels to 850 million, but they also upped US imports by 5 bushels.With this year’s US wheat sales 90 million ahead of 2023/24, this increase seems reasonable. Overall,the latest US wheat ending stocks are down 20 million to 795 million. USDA left the US soybeans supply/demand data unchanged from last month but did lower the season-average price from $10.80 per bushel to $10.20 per bushel. The World Board appeared to be morecautious about US soybean demand in the upcoming US 2024/25 crop year due to potential changes intrade policy. President-elect Trump’s statements about re-instating tariffs on Chinese purchasing fromthe US and a general increase of 10% on all imports from China to 60% levels seems to have paused theUSDA leaving this month’s US soybean balance sheet unchanged. With the current 24/25 export sales145 million bushels ahead of last year on this date and shipments 130 million higher than last year, arebound in last month’s 25 million decline in exports seemed possible to some analysts, but there is alsoa general consensus that soybean sales and shipments are front-loaded this year and could drop offdramatically in the near future. The USDA also left its US 24/25 soybean crush unchanged despiteindications that this fall’s overall pace is 35-38 million bushels larger than last year. If soybean oil forrenewable biofuels continues to drive the crush, the question is where all the soybean meal will go andwill this weigh on values for corn distillers grains. With fut