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市场展望-2024年12月19日

2024-12-19美国谷物协会L***

AI智能总结

Market Summary

1. Economic Outlook

Inflation: November US PPI came in above expectations, with producer prices up 3.0% year-over-year. Food prices surged 3.1%, led by a 55% jump in egg prices due to bird flu outbreak.
Federal Reserve: No change in actions following a 25-basis point rate cut announced on Wednesday. Inflation concerns remain, and the FOMC will continue to monitor.
Stock Market: Sharp sell-off in stocks, with indexes reaching 4-6 week lows despite the rate cut. FOMC raised GDP and inflation estimates, suggesting a more restrictive monetary policy.

2. Crop Production and Imports

China: Forecast record grain harvest of 706 mmt, with corn crop at 294 mmt, up 2.1% from last year. China to halt corn sales from reserves to support domestic market.
Brazil: Record-large soybean crop expected, with real falling to a record low, spurring farm sales. Soybean meal prices testing support near $280/ton.

3. CBOT March 2025 Corn Futures

Current Market Values: Not specified.
Weather/Crop Progress: Crop condition and progress reports not applicable until Spring 2025.

4. Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS)

Prices: Averaged $150 per short ton, up $1 from the previous report.
DDGS/Cash Corn Ratio: 0.98, down from 0.99 last week.
DDGS/KC Soybean Meal Ratio: 0.52, up from 0.51 last week.

5. Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads

Negotiations: No movement in labor contract negotiations between the International Longshore Association and the U.S. Maritime Alliance.
Red Sea and Arabian Peninsula: Attacks by Houthi terrorists have been quiet, but vessel owners are bypassing the area.
Baltic Dry Index: Dropped 7% to 1,028, the lowest level since July 2023.

6. U.S. Export Statistics

Corn: Net sales of 1,174,600 MT for 2024/2025, up 24% from the previous week but down 10% from the prior 4-week average.
Barley: Total net sales of 100 MT for 2024/2025, for South Korea.
Sorghum: Net sales reductions of 59,200 MT for 2024/2025, a marketing-year low. Exports to China up 92% from the previous week.

Market Perspectives December 19, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT March 2025 Corn Futures ..................................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 6FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 12Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 12Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 12 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook November US PPI came in above expectations at +.4% (+.2% expected). Producer prices were up 3.0%versus a year ago. Food prices surged 3.1% in November, energy up .2%. Food prices were led by a 55%jump in the price of eggs (bird flu outbreak). Producer prices ex food and energy were up .2% inNovember and are up 3.4% versus a year ago. Prices for goods are up 1.1% and prices for services are up3.9% from a year ago. Nothing in this report changed the actions of the Federal Reserve in going with a25-basis point rate cut which was announced on Wednesday. Some of the core numbers in the PPInumbers from Dec 12thare not going to affect PCE in a big way. But inflation, as was seen onWednesday’s CPI number, is not yet dead and concerns about inflation will remain a part of the FOMCstatements and future worries and decisions. Stock indexes on Wednesday sold off sharply, with theS&P 500 posting a 4-week low, the Dow Jones Industrials falling to a 6-week low, and the Nasdaq 100posting a 2-week low. Stocks were hammered Wednesday afternoon, and bond yields soared even afterthe FOMC cut the fed funds target range by an expected -25 bp but signaled only 50 bp of rate cuts nextyear, fewer than 100 bp of rate cuts projected in September. The FOMC also raised its US GDP andinflation estimates for this year and next, suggesting a more restrictive monetary policy. Stock pricessank to their lows Wednesday afternoon when Fed Chair Powell said the FOMC will be more cautious asit considers further adjustments to policy. The state statistical Bureau of China released 2024 Chinese crop production data and forecast a recordgrain harvest of 706 mmt, surpassing last year’s crop of 695.4 mmt. The 2024 Chinese corn crop wasestimated at 294 mmt, up 2.1% from last year, and a new record. In 2025, China will allow andencourage the seeding of GM corn & soybeans, and the trade will be watching to see what happens tothe size of China’s crops with the implementation of new technology. China announced that it will halt the sale of corn from imported reserves to help prop up its domesticcorn market that has seen declining prices. This strongly suggests that China will not be a large importerof 2024/25 corn with some private estimates suggesting 6-9 mmt versus the current WASDE estimate of14 mmt. China’s 2024/25 wheat imports are forecast to drop to 6-8 mmt from the WASDE forecast of 11mmt. The Brazilian real has fallen to a record low 6.15 which is spurring farm sales of a looming record-largesoybean crop and drops in soybean basis offers of 6-10 cents per bu

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