Market Summary
1. Economic Outlook
- Inflation: November US PPI came in above expectations, with producer prices up 3.0% year-over-year. Food prices surged 3.1%, led by a 55% jump in egg prices due to bird flu outbreak.
- Federal Reserve: No change in actions following a 25-basis point rate cut announced on Wednesday. Inflation concerns remain, and the FOMC will continue to monitor.
- Stock Market: Sharp sell-off in stocks, with indexes reaching 4-6 week lows despite the rate cut. FOMC raised GDP and inflation estimates, suggesting a more restrictive monetary policy.
2. Crop Production and Imports
- China: Forecast record grain harvest of 706 mmt, with corn crop at 294 mmt, up 2.1% from last year. China to halt corn sales from reserves to support domestic market.
- Brazil: Record-large soybean crop expected, with real falling to a record low, spurring farm sales. Soybean meal prices testing support near $280/ton.
3. CBOT March 2025 Corn Futures
- Current Market Values: Not specified.
- Weather/Crop Progress: Crop condition and progress reports not applicable until Spring 2025.
4. Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS)
- Prices: Averaged $150 per short ton, up $1 from the previous report.
- DDGS/Cash Corn Ratio: 0.98, down from 0.99 last week.
- DDGS/KC Soybean Meal Ratio: 0.52, up from 0.51 last week.
5. Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads
- Negotiations: No movement in labor contract negotiations between the International Longshore Association and the U.S. Maritime Alliance.
- Red Sea and Arabian Peninsula: Attacks by Houthi terrorists have been quiet, but vessel owners are bypassing the area.
- Baltic Dry Index: Dropped 7% to 1,028, the lowest level since July 2023.
6. U.S. Export Statistics
- Corn: Net sales of 1,174,600 MT for 2024/2025, up 24% from the previous week but down 10% from the prior 4-week average.
- Barley: Total net sales of 100 MT for 2024/2025, for South Korea.
- Sorghum: Net sales reductions of 59,200 MT for 2024/2025, a marketing-year low. Exports to China up 92% from the previous week.
