市场展望——2024年9月19日

Market Perspectives September 19, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT December 2024 Corn Futures ............................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 9Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ............................................................................... 10DDGS Comments..................................................................................................................................... 10Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 11Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 11U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 13Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 13Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 14Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 14 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook USDA’s Crop Progress report showed corn crop ratings up 1% to 65% G/E. By state, MN was the largestimprovement, up 9, with IL up 8 points, NE 3 points higher and MO improving 2 points. Ratings in OHcontinue to deteriorate, down 21 points, with KS losing 12, SD down 11, IN slipping 7, ND losing 6 points,and IA down 2. For mid-September, a 65 G/E rating is well above the 58% G/E average rating since 2010.There have been 5 years since 2010 with higher ratings in Mid-September than this year’s rating. Earlyyield reports have been mixed with some of the early-harvested corn being corn that was stressed bylocalized or regional moisture and heat stress. Reports from the heart of the Cornbelt will begin to comein over the next 10 days. Weekly EIA data shows 1.049 million barrels per day of ethanol production during the week that endedon September 13. That was down 31,000 bpd from the week prior, assuming a drop in corn use. Ethanolstocks saw a build of 71,000 barrels to 23.785 million barrels. Refiner inputs of ethanol rose 16,000 bpdto 908,000 bpd, with ethanol exports down 26,000 bpd to 151,000 bpd. CONAB outlined their initial outlook numbers this week in a presentation that showed corn output risingby 3.6% vs last year. Brazil’s 2024/25 corn crop is estimated at 119.8 MMT according to CONAB’s initialestimate. That is below the 127 MMT projection from the USDA. Corn exports from Brazil are expectedto drop 5.6% to 34 million metric tons, while domestic consumption is seen rising by 3.3%. The weatherconversation right now is mostly around its impact on soybeans, but as the calendar turns over toOctober corn will start to be a part of the conversation. Brazil’s corn exports for September are expectedto total 6.63 MMT, a slightly increase from the 6.47 MMT projection last week from ANEC. Last year,Brazil exported 6.42 MMT in September. La Nina was confirmed this week as the 30-day net change threshold was -.67 degrees Celsius in theNino-3-4 region. The models have shown a strengthening of La Nina for most of September and theconfirmations that a La Nina now has developed will be watched by grain and commodity markets. LaNina should allow rains to return to Northern Brazil during October, while producing dryness acrossArgentina and southern Brazil in Q1 of 2025. Australian wheat typically benefits from increased rainfallduring a La Nina and whether a Central US drought develops in the summer of 2025 will be somethingthat will be watched. La Nina typically adds additional weather risk to world crops versus El Nino andcommodity trader