市场展望——2024年9月12日

Market Perspectives September 12, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT December 2024 Corn Futures ............................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 9Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ............................................................................... 10DDGS Comments..................................................................................................................................... 10Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 11Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 11U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 13Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 13Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 13Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook Corn production for grain is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up less than 1 percent from the previousforecast but down 1 percent from 2023. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected toaverage 183.6 bushels per harvested acre, up 0.5 bushel from the previous forecast and up 6.3 bushelsfrom last year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 82.7 million acres, unchanged from the previousforecast but down 4 percent from the previous year. Compared to the August estimates, yields in majorproducing states were raised in Iowa, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Yieldsdecreased in Illinois, Minnesota, and Ohio. Ending stocks in the 2024/25 WASDE were reduced by 16million bushels to 2.057 billion bushels on a drop in beginning stocks and an increase in production butno changes to demand. Sorghum yields were raised in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and South Dakota and decreased in Texas.This resulted in an increase in production from 279 million bushels to 302 million bushels. Sorghumexports were raised by 25 million bushels from the August report, so projected ending stocks declined 2million bushels. Soybean production for beans is forecast at a record high of 4.59 billion bushels, down slightly from theprevious forecast but up 10 percent from 2023. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields areexpected to average a record high 53.2 bushels per acre, unchanged from the previous forecast but up2.6 bushels from 2023. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 86.3 million acres,unchanged from the previous forecast but up 5 percent from 2023. 2024/25 ending stocks declined 10million bushels on a 8 million bushel drop in supply and a 2 million bushel increase residual use. As overall beer consumption in the U.S. slides to its lowest level since the 1970s according to data fromthe Brewers Association, U.S. Plains states face a huge glut of barley. Americans are buying less beer,and frequenting fewer craft breweries that use even more malt per beverage. The most-recent U.S. cropreport showed the number of acres planted with barley have fallen by 22% compared with a year ago. InNorth Dakota, the No. 2 producing state behind Idaho, acres nearly halved from a year ago. Supplies ofbarley that farmers have in storage on farms are up 51% from last year and are the highest since 2010,according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. U.S. malt barley prices, which farmers arrange beforeplanting, were around $7 per bushel last year and under $5 per bushel this year depending on location.