2025年全球资产配置展望（英文）

Quarterly update from Invesco’s Global Market Strategy Office17 November 2024 For professional/institutional/qualified/accredited investors only. The Big PictureGlobal Asset Allocation:2025Outlook US assets usually perform well in the year after an election.Hence, given that we expectlessinflation, easing central banks andmore growth,we think2025should be agood yearforfinancial markets.However,we embrace risk cautiouslyafter strong price gains in 2024.Wereduce cash to zero and government bonds to Neutral within our Model Asset Allocation, whileincreasing investment grade, bank loans and REITS (allOverweight) and high yield (stillUnderweight).Across regions we prefer European and emerging market(EM)assets. Model asset allocation Inour view: ▪Cash rates arefalling andwe think there are better options. We reduce to Zero.▪Governmentbondyieldsunlikelyto fall much at the long end of the curve.Wereduceto Neutral.▪Bank loansofferthe mostattractiverisk-reward trade-off. WeremainMaximum allocated.▪Corporate investment grade (IG)preferred to government bonds. We increase tofurther Overweight.▪Corporate high yield (HY) usually does well in an economic recovery. We increasebut stay Underweight.▪Real estate (REITS)could benefit from falling rates and stronger economies. Weincrease toOverweight.▪Commoditiescould be helped byeconomic acceleration and aweakening dollar. Weboost to Maximum.▪Equitiesare handicapped by an expensive and concentrated US market. Weremain Underweight.▪Goldmay be helped byaweakening dollarbut is expensive. Weremain at Zero.▪Regionally, we favourEurope and EM (embracing risk).▪US dollar expected to weakenand we partially hedge into JPY. Our best-in-class assetsfor 2025(based onprojectedreturnsin local currency) ▪European bank loans▪UKIG▪Commodities Table of contents Summary and conclusions: 2025–Cautiously embracing risk.........................................................................3Model asset allocation*...........................................................................................................................................5A glance in the rear-view mirror.............................................................................................................................6Taking a stepback: focusing on the next decade using Invesco’s CMAs........................................................7Politics in2025: A calmer year ahead...................................................................................................................8Reasons to be happy #1: global deceleration but not recession.......................................................................9Reasons to be happy #2: inflation falling, central banks easing and acceleration........................................10Reasons to be happy #3: Fed easing associated with good returns if no recession....................................11Reasons to be happy #4: the year after US elections tend to be good for assets.........................................12Reasons to worry #1: risks to growth.................................................................................................................13Reasons to worry #2: inflation risks....................................................................................................................15Reasons to worry #3: the Fed’s “normal” may be higher than you think.......................................................16Reasons to worry #4: US indebtedness and a Fed undermined......................................................................17From economic to market cycles........................................................................................................................18Projections for 2025..............................................................................................................................................19Model Asset Allocation: cautiously embracing risk..........................................................................................28Equity factors and sectors...................................................................................................................................29Alternative scenarios............................................................................................................................................30Appendices............................................................................................................................................................31Appendix 1: Global valuations vs history.............................................................................................................31Appendix 2: Asset class total returns...................................................................................................................32Appendix 3: Invesco 10-year Capital Market Assumptions (USD version).........................................................33Appendix 4: Key assumptions.