2024年展望——KKR全球宏观趋势与资产配置分析

Outlook for2024 KKR Global Macro Trends| December 2023 How Are We Thinking AboutExpected Returns? We view 2024 as an important transition year in our RegimeChange thesis as we are finally forecasting below consensusinflation for much of the next 12 months. However, the fourkey pillars of our Regime Change thesis – a sizeable fiscalimpulse, sticky labor costs, a messy energy transition,and a fundamental restructuring of global supply chains– remain in play and all argue for a different approach toasset allocation, including a meaningful reduction in the rolegovernment bonds can play in a diversified global portfolio.We still see the push and pull of loose fiscal policy versustight monetary policy, which are working against oneanother to heighten volatility as well as increase dispersionsalongside a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions. Againstan increasingly complex macro backdrop, we think that allglobal allocators will need a ‘glass half full’ approach thatencourages them to direct capital towards investmentthemes that not only have attractive growth characteristicsbut also serve as foils to some of the current obstacles towhat was once a more synchronized and well-integratedglobal economy. Henry H. McVeyHead of Global Macro& Asset Allocationhenry.mcvey@kkr.com This note is a summaryfrom the Q&A portionof our full note, whichis available on KKR.comvia the link below. Weencourage interestedreaders to reach out to yourKKR Relationship Managerfor additional information. Given our team’s focus on asset allocation – includingthe approximate $26 billion of capital we manage onthe firm’s balance sheet – we have spent a lot of timepressure-testing our assumptions around expectedreturns across asset classes. See below for our keytakeaways, but the bottom line is that we are in ayear of ‘transition’ within our Regime Change thesis.Specifically, the public markets are still adjusting to anenvironment of higher-for-longer rates, and parts ofthe next twelve months will feel like a typical downturn(including a potential fixed-income rally). At the sametime, however, private asset valuations have nowcompressed quite a bit in recent quarters, earnings likelybottomed this year, and the potential to create valuethrough operational improvement is significant, in ourview. As such, we firmly believe that investors who pullback on deployment today will miss out on some verycompelling vintages. Against this backdrop, we thinknow is still a time to ‘Keep It Simple’, with more of a biastowards quality and less need to stretch on risk, whilestill deploying thematically. 500 dividend yields by one of the widest margin since2009. Importantly, we are not forecasting a sharpwidening of credit spreads this cycle; a key to ourthinking is that defaults will not experience a ‘full’ spikeas in past downturns, as the quality of High Yield hasimproved significantly. yWithin one’s credit portfolio, we think this may bethe time to pursue more balance between fixed vs.floating assets. To be sure, we also still like cash as anuncorrelated asset class, but we think it makes senseto add some duration, too, as there is a compellingopportunity to lock in cash-like yields over a multiyearperiod. yWithin private markets, the cost of capital has startedto normalize. The excess return earned on PrivateCredit is still quite compelling (in general, we thinkprivate credit outperforms HY and Loans by about+100 basis points or more over the next five years),but we do acknowledge that we are starting tosee more competition, which is leading to spreadcompression in certain instances. Hence, we maintaina preference to overweight areas such as Asset-Based Finance, Structured Credit, and even partsof Real Estate Credit. Meanwhile, private marketvaluations now look more reasonable compared topublic markets. As we detail below, we think that the yWe continue to think that this is a good time to be alender. No doubt, higher risk-free rates mean thatinvestors can now be well compensated for sittinghigher in the capital structure. One can see this inExhibit 3, which shows that HY yields now exceed S&P Exhibit 3:We Have Often Seen Very Strong PE Vintagesin High-Rate Environments market is currently underestimating the opportunityto create operational improvements, especially incarve-out and bolt-on acquisitions. yToday is not necessarily a good time to buy passive,non-control positions in Equities. As we show inExhibit 1, we think the most disappointing asset classfor investors this cycle may actually be large publiccompanies that are exposed to slower growth.Meanwhile, there are a lot of smaller cash-flowingcompanies in the S&P 600 that are trading at deeplydiscounted valuations at a time when marketbreadth is set to improve. This backdrop is one ofthe reasons we look for more public-to-privatetransactions in 2024. yWe still see a world of higher real rates, but certainparts of real asset prices have largely discountedthis with more attractive entry p