全球能源展望报告2024

IEEJ Outlook2024 Rejean CASAUBONSeiya ENDORyou ETOUHiroshi HASHIMOTOTakehiro IWATAKAN SichaoKenji KIMURAYoshikazu KOBAYASHIKen KOYAMAIchiro KUTANITomoko MATSUMOTOTetsuo MORIKAWASoichi MORIMOTOTaiju MORIMOTOTomoko MURAKAMIYuto NAKANOYasushi NINOMIYAJunichi OGASAWARAAtsuo SAGAWAToshiyuki SAKAMOTOYoshiaki SHIBATAShigeru SUEHIROYoshiaki TAKAHASHIKazuki YAMAMOTOYukari YAMASHITAAkira YANAGISAWA Summary Part IEnergy supply and demand outlook5 1. Framework assumptions72. Energy demand193. Energy supply494. Advanced Technologies Scenario815. Energy-related investments113 Part IIComplexity of achieving the energy transition undermultiple pathways119 6. Enabling LNG and natural gas to play their roles1217. Growing importance of negative emissions technologies1278. Paths towards ASEAN’s energy transition141 157 Annex 243 Slides Figure 1-1 | Geographical coverage........................................................................................................ 7Figure 1-2 | Technology introduction assumptions [Advanced Technologies Scenario] ................ 9Figure 1-3 | World economic growth assumption.............................................................................. 11Figure 1-4 | Economic growth assumption in selected countries/regions ...................................... 12Figure 1-5 | Population assumption ..................................................................................................... 13Figure 1-6 | Brent crude oil prices......................................................................................................... 14Figure 2-1 | Global primary energy consumption, real GDP and GDP energy intensity[Reference Scenario] ................................................................................................................ 19Figure 2-2 | Primary energy consumption in selected countries/regions [ReferenceScenario].................................................................................................................................... 20Figure 2-3 | Global primary energy consumption [Reference Scenario] ......................................... 21Figure 2-4 | Primary energy consumption .......................................................................................... 22Figure 2-5 | Dependence on fossil fuels in........................................................................................... 22Figure 2-6 | Contributions to global primary energy consumption growth [ReferenceScenario, 2021-2050] ................................................................................................................ 23Figure 2-7 | Electrification rates on the supply side in selected countries/regions[Reference Scenario] ................................................................................................................ 23Figure 2-8 | Global oil consumption and its share of primary energy consumption[Reference Scenario] ................................................................................................................ 24Figure 2-9 | Oil consumption in selected countries/regions [Reference Scenario]......................... 24Figure 2-10 | Global oil consumption [Reference Scenario] .............................................................. 24Figure 2-11 | Japan’s energy self-sufficiency rate and indigenous production of non-fossilfuels of Japan ............................................................................................................................ 26Figure 2-12 |Energy efficiency in Japan.............................................................................................. 27Figure 2-13 | Primary energy consumption in Japan ......................................................................... 27Figure 2-14 | Power generation mix in Japan...................................................................................... 28Figure 2-15 | Dependency on the Middle East for Japan’s crude oil imports................................. 29Figure 2-16 | Global natural gas consumption and its share of primary energyconsumption [Reference Scenario] ........................................................................................ 29Figure 2-17 | Natural gas consumption in selected countries/regions [Reference Scenario]........ 30Figure 2-18 | Global natural gas consumption [Reference Scenario] ............................................... 30Figure 2-19 | Global coal consumption and its share of primary energy consumption[Reference Scenario] ................................................................................................................ 31Figure 2-20 | Coal consumption in selected countries/regions [Reference Scenario] .................... 32Figure 2-21 | Global coal consumption [Reference Scenario] ........................................................... 32Figure 2-22 | Non-fossil energy consumption for power generation [Reference Scenario].......... 33Figure 2