2024生成式人工智能与未来工作全球对话：认知与展望报告

Roundtables in Asia, Europe, and LatinAmericaDecember2024 This report was planned prior to the integration of the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence (GPAI) andthe Organisation for Economic and Development (OECD) mid-2024. Consequently, the report was notsubject to approval by GPAI and OECD members and should not be considered to reflect their position. Acknowledgements This report was developed in the context of theproject‘Generative AI and the future of workglobal dialogue: Perceptions and prospects’, with the steering of the Project Co-Leads and theguidance of the Project Advisory Group, supported by the GPAIFuture of Work (FoW) WorkingGroup. The GPAIFoW Working Groupagreed to declassify this report and make it publiclyavailable. Co-Leads:LuciaVelasco (FoW, GPAI/OECD) and Matthias Peissner(Fraunhofer IAO) The report was written by:Davide MonacoandLaura Nurski (Centre for European PolicyStudies, CEPS) GPAI would like to acknowledge the tireless efforts of colleaguesat the French NationalInstitute for Research in Digital Science and Technology (Inria)and GPAI’sFoW WorkingGroup. We are grateful, in particular, for the support ofMarie-Fleur Simmet,Edouard Havisand Aurelie Simard(Inria),LuciaVelasco (FoW Working Group Co-Chair andProject Co-Lead), Matthias Peissner (Project Co-Lead) and Alexandre Shee (FoW Working Group Co-Chair). Citation GPAI 2025.Generative AI and the future of work global dialogue: Perceptions and prospects.Roundtables in Asia, Europe, and Latin America, Report,January2025, Global Partnershipon AI. Table of Contents Introduction..........................................................................................................................................21.Future of work narratives: promise or peril?...........................................................................42.Approaches for grasping the future of work............................................................................73.The future of work: navigating the impact of technological change and (generative) AI.133.1Employment.........................................................................................................................143.2Job quality............................................................................................................................184.Worldwide policy responses on the future of work...............................................................21Conclusion..........................................................................................................................................27ANNEX: Questions used to frame the roundtable discussions...................................................31 Introduction The impact of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) on the labour market is one of the ‘bigunknowns’ in current debates about the future of work worldwide. The effects on employment levelshavethepotentialtobe very significant, with recent studies estimating millions of jobs either at risk offull automation or benefiting from complementarities and ‘augmentation’ of human capabilities. On jobquality, the impact of GenAI must be judged by its impact on all job quality dimensions, including(butnot limited to)employment and working conditions. Owingto the emerging nature of GenAI, research on redesigning work in such a context is still in itsinfancy. Moreover, the inherent lack of data about the futureentailsthat alternative approachesbeyond traditional social science methods may be necessary to deepen our understanding of theseissues. Against this backdrop, the project ‘Generative AI and the future of work global dialogue:Perceptions and prospects’,organised in the framework of the Global Partnership on ArtificialIntelligence (GPAI),sought to complement existing streams of theoretical and empirical research byincorporating regional perspectives. To achieve this, three roundtable discussions with experts,policymakers, and stakeholders were held across Asia, Europe, and Latin America, with the aim ofexploring the (actual and potential) impact of AI and GenAI on the world of work (Box1). This report frames the issues relevant to understandingGenAI’s implications for work, provides themost recent research findings and policy developments in this area, and integrates them with insightsdrawn from the roundtable discussions. Itcomparesthe regional perspectives in three main domains:a) approachesforgraspingthe future of work; b) perspectives on and experiences of GenAI’s impacton employment and job quality; and c) current policies andfuturepolicypriorities.The analysis of theroundtable discussions shows that debates tended to focus primarily on impacts on employmentlevels, with job quality aspects receiving less attention–though European stakeholders voiced thestrongest concerns on these issues, especially regarding social dialogue and working conditions. TheAsian perspective stood out for its broader emphasis on reskilling, focusing