2024能源转型展望报告：2050年海事预测：航运脱碳之旅

MARITIMEFORECASTTO 2050 A deep dive into shipping’sdecarbonization journey FOREWORD These solutions are not in competition – they arecomplementary. Maritime decarbonization demandsa portfolio approach, where low-GHG fuels, energyefficiency, onboard carbon capture, and digital opti-mization work together to reduce emissions. power a carbon-neutral fleet in the future, other avenues toemissions reductions must be explored in the meantime.This includes energy-efficiency measures, where a widerange of solutions can already be applied to ships, at rela-tively low cost, delivering emissions reductions today. Shipping’s transformation is underway, powered by innovation, collaboration, and purpose tencies and ensure comparability across fuel types. LifeCycle Assessment (LCA) guidelines, including well-to-tank(WtT) values for fossil LNG and other fuels, are essential toensure that those who are making real strides towards emis-sions reductions today are rewarded and not penalized. Maritime decarbonization continues to define our time.With global regulations gaining momentum and industrycommitment accelerating, the pathway to net zero is nolonger theoretical, it’s unfolding in real time. The chal-lenges are complex, but the direction is clear, and thepace of innovation, investment, and collaboration ispicking up across certain parts of the value chain. Great strides are being made in wind-assisted propulsionsystems, and several pilot and third-party verificationprojects are already underway in 2025 to quantify theirbenefits. If successful, we could see a surge in their uptake,representing a breakthrough for sustainable shipping. Significant progress has already been made and there ismuch to celebrate, particularly on the technology transition. Drawing on insights from DNV’s Alternative Fuels Insightdatabase, this year’s report shows how the number ofvessels on order with alternative fuel capability is setto more than double by 2028, leading us to concludethat the old 'chicken-and-egg' dilemma – whetherships or fuels should come first – no longer applies. The emergence of low-GHG fuels can also be facili-tated by practical and sensible guidelines around thesustainable fuels certification framework. Without a harmo-nized and credible system, the market for low- and zero-emission fuels will struggle to scale. The adoption of flexibleChain of Custody models can allow for the distribution ofgreen fuels together with fossil fuels, removing the needfor extra pipelines and infrastructure, potentially savingmillions in CAPEX investments while reducing emissions. Onboard carbon capture is also growing in prominence.Research from this year’s report shows that retrofitting thistechnology to the largest containers, bulkers, and tankers inthe global fleet is feasible, with space requirements similarto a standard LNG fuel tank. If this is allayed with the devel-opment of CO2offloading infrastructure at 20 of the world’slargest ports, emissions from these vessels could be reducedby 19%, equivalent to a 9% reduction in total fleet emissions. Earlier in 2025, the IMO took a momentous step byapproving in principle what may become the most impactfulglobal regulation in any industry – the Net-Zero Framework(NZF) for shipping. Building on the ambitions laid out in the2023 IMO GHG Strategy, the NZF introduces the first globalpricing mechanism for greenhouse gas emissions, alongsidetechnical requirements for well-to-wake GHG intensity. By 2030, the alternative-fuelled fleet will be capableof consuming around 50 million tonnes of oil equiv-alent (Mtoe) of non-oil fuels annually. While this is stillshort of the total fleet consumption of 280 Mtoe peryear, it is a remarkable achievement in a short time. If adopted in October, this regulation will reshape investmentdecisions, operational strategies, and fuel choices acrossthe industry, and this year’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 high-lights and analyses its potentially transformative impact. We are still putting the pieces of this puzzle together.Progress isn’t linear. It’s built on innovation, lessonslearned, collaboration, and relentless improvement. More broadly, the reward mechanism for zero and near-zero(ZNZ) fuels, and for emission- and energy-saving tech-nologies, should be clarified to incentivize innovationand early adoption. Governance and spending mech-anisms must be defined to build trust in how revenuesfrom the IMO Net-Zero Fund are managed and rein-vested back into the industry to accelerate the transition. This progress shifts the spotlight to fuel producers. Tomeet the IMO’s 2030 target of a 20% emissions reduction,shipping will need access to around 25 Mtoeof low-GHG fuels annually. This representsroughly a quarter to a third of the totalprojected global supply of 70–100 Mtoe oflow-GHG fuels by 2030, highlighting theintense competition shipping will face fromother sectors also racing to decarbonize. We each have a role to play and engagement andcollaboration ac