能源转型展望2025：全球和区域预测至2060

A global and regional forecast to 2060 FOREWORD Ten years have passed since representatives from 196 nations signed theParis Agreement.Since then, only six countries have reduced their emissions in line with their pledges, whilethe US has exited the Agreement, again. It is now widely acknowledged that the world willnot achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. This means warming will exceed 1.5°C and thenincrease relentlessly until we reduce greenhouse gas emissions to zero. Soaring power demand from AI data centres isplacing additional strain on already congested grids,particularly in North America. Our analysis findsthat AI’s energy demand growth is likely to becomemore linear over time (outpaced, for instance, by EVcharging demand) even as the cognitive services ofAI expand exponentially. That is due to many efficiencyeffects working together, a theme we explore insome depth in this year’s forecast. Net-zero emissions in our forecast is only achievedtowards the end of this century, and the accumulationof emissions until then takes us beyond 2°C ofwarming by 2100. Science has shown beyond anydoubt that humanity will then be experiencing, toits great cost, how critical each tenth of a degree ofglobal warming is to our planet and society. In our view, the heightened focus on energy securityby policymakers worldwide slightly favours non-fossilover fossil sources in the long run. That includes aresurgence of investment in nuclear power, which wepredict will grow 150% from today’s levels by 2060.On the fossil side of the mix, policy reversals in theUS will see its emission reductions set back around5 years. The US accounts for one seventh of globalprimary energy use and thus exerts some influenceon the overall picture. However, massive scaledecarbonization of the Chinese economy continues,coupled with low-cost electro-technology exportsfrom China to other regions. Faced with these developments, a casual observermight conclude that the energy transition is stalledor in reverse. That is most definitely not the case. Theenergy transition is rolling on. DNV’s annualEnergyTransition Outlookhas, consistently, forecast a shiftfrom today’s 80/20 fossil/non-fossil primary energymix to a 50/50 mix by 2050. That is still our predictionthis year, although some aspects of the transition aresupercharged and progressing rapidly, while otheraspects of the transition have hit turbulence and aredelayed. This leads to a marginally slower transitionthan our forecast last year. Hydrogen and its derivatives, floating offshore wind,and novel nuclear solutions comprise the expensiveside of decarbonization, with uptake driven by policyrather than market forces. These technologies all playa more muted role in this year’s forecast, only reallyscaling in the 2040s. Remi EriksenGroup President and CEODNV In contrast, cheap renewable electrons, stored whennecessary in ever-cheaper batteries, are already anunstoppable force. We forecast that solar (both withand without storage) and wind will be 32% of theglobal power mix by 2030. We expect a resurgencein offshore wind by 2030, such that variable renewableswill provide more than 50% of all electricity by 2040.By then, electricity will have grown 55% from today’slevels. What is stopping runaway developments inelectrification is a lagging grid buildout. We estimatethat in Europe, absent the present ‘gridlock’, solarcapacity could be 16% higher by 2035, and windcapacity 8% higher. This year, our forecast runs to 2060, not 2050.That is mainly because the transition is by no meanscomplete in 2050 and there is a very importantdynamic unfolding in the decade thereafter asthe world trends further towards a decarbonizedenergy mix. That trend is unstoppable but too slow,setting up grave risks for future generations. It is now widely acknowledged that the worldwill not achieve net zero emissions by 2050,which means warming will exceed 1.5°C. HIGHLIGHTS Policy reversals in the US will haveonly a marginal impact on the globalenergy transition — In the rest of the world, most countries areembracing competitive Chinese technologies,with year-on-year growth in installations at around25%. Fossil energy use is also rising, but not asquickly. The primary energy fossil fuel share onlyshrinks from 79% to 75% over the next 10 years. 1. Policy reversals in the US will have only amarginal impact on the global energy transition — This year, we project an energy transition that ismarginally slower than the transition we forecastlast year, both in terms of emissions and fossil'sshare of primary energy. Energy security actions globallyproduce a net result of loweremissions over time — This year, DNV forecasts the energy transitionto 2060 for the first time. We project the globaltransition will continue through the 2050s, withacceleration at that time in nuclear and negativeemission technologies. — In the US, fossil fuel promotion and the reversalof clean energy support policies markedly slowthat nation’s t