挪威船级社（DNV）：2024能源转型展望报告：新电力系统

Electricity, renewables generation,and grids through to 2050 FOREWORD Our forecast is not insensitive to the present difficultiesfacing the renewables industry, particularly windpower, caused by tight supply chains and inflation.But these immediate pressures will only have a smalldampening effect on the renewable share in thepower mix by 2050. The main lines of developmentare clear. The rate at which the new power reality isembraced by countries will have a profound influenceon the competitiveness of their economies. Clearly,though, it is not just economic efficiency which is atstake. The successful electrification of our energysystem is the single most important step we can takein bringing the world closer to the ambitions of theParis Agreement. 2050 during a hypothetical two-week periodof adverse weather conditions and no wind power. About this report New power systems — systems where mostof the electricity is generated by solar andwind — are poised to become the newenergy reality for almost every country inthe next three decades. We expect to see an average 60% rise in GDP percapita between now and the middle of this century.As households become more prosperous, they willincreasingly electrify their end uses. In doing so,they will take advantage of the large efficiencies thatelectricity brings — for example to mobility and heating— and in general we find that households will bespending less and less of their income on their energyneeds. At a macro level, the world will be spendingroughly half as much on energy as a percentage ofglobal GDP in 2050 than it does at present. This report expands upon our electricity forecast— Chapter 2 of ourEnergy Transition Outlook,2023. Experts in DNV’s Energy Systems unit havecontributed additional material to this report inthe fields of demand modelling, grid operations,digitalization and AI, and new market models andfunding mechanisms for flexibility. Electrification, and more specifically, decarbonizedelectricity, is pivotal to the ongoing energy transitionand central to the fight against climate change.It is also vital to the wellbeing of humanity: we areentering an era where electricity will bring clean,efficient, and modern energy to almost everyindividual on this planet. In this report we deepen coverage in particular of: — Demand response and associated technical andfinancial considerations— Modelling power systems by the hour to gaugethe impact of adverse weather, including a casecovering a windless fortnight in the UK powermarket— Grid enhancing technologies— The impact of digitalization, with a focus onresistance to change, cyber security, and AI— The sensitivity of the flexibility market toheightened participation of the global EV fleetin providing vehicle-to-grid services, and tovarying assumptions about the average durationof utility-scale Li-ion battery storage— Market designs to promote flexibility and long-term investment in decarbonization of power Getting to that green prize is challenging and requiresinvestment and bold policy underpinned by a soundunderstanding of energy technology. New marketmodels must be implemented that ensure demandfollows supply and not the other way around, whichis the case at present. These are themes we explorein depth in this report. Variable renewables needto be paired with adequate storage. Changingpatterns of demand, and especially new sources ofpower demand in transport, heat pumps, andelectrolysis-based hydrogen must be anticipated andresponded to. The power grid must more than doublein capacity, and to the extent that new build trans-mission and distribution will take time, grid enhancingtechnologies (GETs) should be implemented to getthe most out of the existing grid. This is one of a numberof areas where investment in digitalization is criticalacross new power systems, including, as we show,investment in and deployment of artificial intelligence. I hope this report inspires action.As ever, I look forward to your feedback. We forecast that wind and solar are likely to supply50% of the world’s electricity by 2040. By mid-century,that share will rise to almost 70%. By then the amountof electricity consumed globally will have doubledcompared with today’s use. These are some of the central findings in DNV’sEnergy Transition Outlook, now in its seventh edition.Behind that forecast is a comprehensive systemdynamics model of the energy supply, use, and tradewithin and between 10 world regions through to 2050.The model is designed to capture dynamics that occuron an annual scale or longer. However, as you willdiscover in this report, the power market aspect of ourforecast addresses supply and demand dynamics onan hourly basis. For example, we are able to show youwhat goes on with the new power system in the UK in Remi EriksenGroup President and CEODNV CONTENTS Foreword2Highlights4Executive summary51Electricity demand and supply111.1Electricity demand121.2Securing electricity supply19—Regional overview21—Nucle