铁矿石周报

上海东亚期货周报 铁矿石周报-2019.01.06 一周内容简介：  点评： 供给方面：发货量和到港量维持年内高位； 需求方面：由于检修限产因素，铁水产量持续下降，但补库需求旺盛，各地陆续补库，唐山限产烧结结束，需求有所恢复； 库存方面：钢厂补库持续中，未来2-3周仍有1500万吨以上的补库需求，钢厂库存持续上升。港口库存随着到港回升，开始进入累库趋势，未来补库阶段港口库存平稳为主，补库结束后会快速累库。 目前铁矿石为钢厂补库驱动行情，未来2-3周需要进行春节期间的原料冬储，钢厂补库的力度决定上涨幅度，注意成材价格转弱和铁水产量进一步下降的风险。补库结束或临近结束时，价格有回落风险。 目前铁矿石期货重点关注：成材价格/利润、限产、钢厂补库。 上海东亚期货周报 一、 价格 1.期货和现货价格 2703203704204705205706206707207701/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1铁矿石主力合约201520162017201820192703203704204705205706206707207701/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1铁矿石1月合约20152016201720182019250300350400450500550600650700750800850主流铁矿石价格铁矿石主力（元/吨）青岛56.5%超特粉（元/湿吨）青岛61%金步巴（元/湿吨）青岛61.5%PB粉（元/湿吨）青岛62.5%纽曼粉（元/湿吨）青岛65%卡粉（元/湿吨） 上海东亚期货周报 2703203704204705205706206707207701/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1铁矿石5月合约201520162017201820192703203704204705205706206707201/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1铁矿石9月合约201520162017201820192530354045505560651/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1普氏指数58%（美元/干吨）20152016201720182019304050607080901/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1普氏指数58%低铝（美元/干吨）20152016201720182019354555657585951/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1普氏指数62%（美元/干吨）20152016201720182019354555657585951051151/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1普氏指数65%（美元/干吨）20152016201720182019 上海东亚期货周报 2503003504004505001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1青岛港56.5%超特粉（元/湿吨）201520162017201820192503003504004505005506006501/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1青岛港58.5%混合粉（元/湿吨）201520162017201820192503003504004505005506006507007501/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1青岛港61%金步巴（元/湿吨）201520162017201820192503003504004505005506006507007501/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1青岛港61%麦克粉（元/湿吨）201520162017201820192503003504004505005506006507007501/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1青岛港61.5%PB粉（元/湿吨）201520162017201820192503003504004505005506006507007501/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1青岛港62.5%纽曼粉（元/湿吨）20152016201720182019 上海东亚期货周报 2503003504004505005506006507007501/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1青岛港62.5%巴混BRBF（元/湿吨）201520162017201820193004005006007008009001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1青岛港65%卡粉（元/湿吨）201520162017201820193003504004505005506006501/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1日照港58%罗布河块（元/湿吨）201520162017201820193004005006007008001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1青岛港62.5%PB块（元/湿吨）201520162017201820193003504004505005506006507007508001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1青岛港63%巴西块（元/湿吨）201520162017201820191000120014001600180020002200240026001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1废钢指数（元/吨）20152016201720182019 上海东亚期货周报 2.价差 4004505005506006507007508008509001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1河北唐山66%铁精粉（元/吨）201520162017201820195006007008009001000110012001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1山东沂水62%球团矿（元/吨）20152016201720182019-200-150-100-500501001501/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1铁矿石1-520152016201720182019-150-100-500501001501/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1铁矿石5-920152016201720182019 上海东亚期货周报 -200-150-100-500501001501/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1铁矿石9-120152016201720182019051015202530351/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1低铝溢价：普氏58%低铝-58%（美元/干吨）201520162017201820190.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1高中品价差：65%卡粉-61%金步巴（元/湿吨）201520162017201820190510152025301/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1高中品价差：普氏65%-62%（美元/干吨）201520162017201820190.0040.0080.00120.00160.00200.001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1中低品价差：61%金步巴-56.5%超特粉（元/湿吨）201520162017201820195101520253035401/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1中低品价差：普氏62%-58%（美元/干吨）20152016201720182019 上海东亚期货周报 二、供给 0501001502002503003504004505001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1高低品价差：65%卡粉-56.5%超特粉（元/湿吨）2015201620172018201901020304050601/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1高低品价差：普氏65%-58%（美元/干吨）201520162017201820190501001502002503001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PB块-PB粉（元/湿吨）20152016201720182019-30-1501530456075901051201/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1罗布河块-罗布河粉（元/湿吨）20152016201720182019 上海东亚期货周报 1.国外 6000650070007500800085009000950010000105001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月进口月度值（万吨）20152016201720185000250004500065000850001050001250001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月进口累计值（万吨）2015201620172018100012001400160018002000220024001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1四大矿山至中国发货量（万吨）20152016201720182019 上海东亚期货周报 2.运费 140016001800200022002400260028001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1澳洲+巴西对外发货量（万吨）2015201620172018201960070080090010001100120013001400150016001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1北方6港铁矿石到港量（万吨）201520162017201820192004006008001000120014001600180020001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1BDI指数201520162017201820192345678910111/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1西澳-青岛运费（美元/吨）20152016201720182019 上海东亚期货周报 3.国内 4681012141618202224261/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1巴西图巴朗-青岛运费（美元/吨）20152016201720182019468101214161/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1印度-青岛/日照运费（美元/吨）2015201620172018201940005000600070008000900010000110001200013000140001月2月3月4月5