亚洲外汇与利率策略：新兴亚洲市场的美元囤积抑或清理？

USD - Hoarding or de-cluttering in EM Asia? Thisshort notehighlightsthe statusof USDhoarding inEMAsia.Overall, +65-6657-3471rohit.garg@citi.comGordon Goh AC foreign currency deposits across EM Asia have generally been increasingwith Thailand beingtheonly exception where UsDdeposits havedecreased.Asfarasconversionsareconcerned,conversionshaveincreasedformostEMAsiancurrentaccountsurplus countries,withTaiwanbeingtheonlyexception. +65-6657-4150gordon.goh@citi.com With thanks toStanley Ren Foreign currencydeposits inChina have continuedto increase.Aftera brieffall, 53% inJun'26from50%inMay26(Figure2).YTDmonthlyaverageconversion isnowat52%vs.50%seenduring2025 depositsto12-monthrollingsumofexportsasaproxyforconversionratio(Figure4).Despiteastrongexportoutperformance,thisratiohasdeclined,whichindicatesthatFXdepositaccumulationhaslaggedexportgrowth.Conseguently,thisimpliesthat exporters in Korea have likelybeen convertingmoreexportreceipts intoKRWratherthanretainingFXproceeds. thatit has remained onagradual downwardtrend.However,itis surprisingtonotethatFXdepositshavebeenbroadlyrange-boundforthepast2-3y,whichindicatesthatasignificantamountofUsDexistsoutsideTaiwan'sbankingsystem,asspecificallynotedbyCBC (link) 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's writen permission.Latestdata as of Jun'26Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg 2026 Citigroup Inc.No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Source:Citi Research.HaverAnalytics,CEIC Data Company Limited 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permissionLatest data as ofJun'26Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg 2026 Citigroup Inc.No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.Latest data as of Jun'26Source:Citi Research, CEICDataCompanyLimited deposits.Philippines'FCYdepositshavebeenratherstableforthepastfewmonths.Thailand has seen corporate FCYdepositsdecline whileFCYdeposits haveincreasedforMalayiaand Indonesia. changes as aproxyfor Malaysia.The sharprise in Malaysia's tradebalance haslikelybeenaccompaniedbyincreasedconversions,inourview.MorerecentlyforJune,however,thishas comeoffsomewhat. muchquickerpaceoverMay-Jun.It ispossiblethat corporateshavetaken THBweakness as anopportunitytoreducetheirUSDdeposits.Thatsaid,thisdrawdown in UsD depositscoincideswiththelarge running deficitsseen in recentmonthsandhencemaybeafunctionofFcYpaymentsasopposedtoactualconversions. 2026 CitigroupInc.No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.Source: Citi Research,Haver Analytics, CEIC Data Company Limited, Bloomberg 2026 Citigroup Inc.No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.Source:Citi Research,HaverAnalytics,CEIC Data CompanyLimited of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS+1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 analysts aredesignatedintheauthorblock,eachanalystis certifyingwithrespecttotheentireresearch reportotherthan(a)contentattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystlistedinboldalongsidethecontentand(b)viewsexpressedsolelyratinghistorytablesforthatissuershownbelow.Eachoftheseanalystscertify,withrespecttothesectionsofthereportforwhichtheyareresponsible:(1)thattheviewsexpressedthereinaccuratelyreflecttheirpersonalviewsabouteachissuerandsecurity referencedand werepreparedinan independent manner,including with respectto Citigroup GlobalMarketsInc.anditsaffiliates;and (2)nopartoftheresearchanalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedbythatresearchanalystinthisreport.IMPORTANTDISCLOSURES Analysts'compensationisdeterminedbyCiti ResearchmanagementandCitigroup'sseniormanagementandisbasedupon activities and services intended to benefit theinvestor clients of Citigroup Global Markets Inc.andits affiliates (the“Firm").Compensationisnotlinkedtospecifictransactionsorrecommendations.Likeall Firmemployees,analystsreceivecompensationthatisimpactedbyoverallFirmprofitabilitywhich includesinvestmentbanking,salesandtrading,andprincipaltradingrevenues.Onefactorinequityresearchanalyst compensationisarranging corporateaccess eventsbetweeninstitutionalclientsandthemanagementteamsofcoveredcompanies.Typically,companymanagementismorelikelytoparticipatewhentheanalysthasapositiveviewofthecompany.Forfinancial instruments recommended in the Product in which the Firm is not amarketmaker,the Firm is a liquidity provider insuchfinancial instruments(andanyunderlyinginstruments)and mayactasprincipalinconnectionwithtransactionsinengageinsecuritiestransactionsinamannerinconsistentwiththeProductand,withrespecttosecuritiescoveredbytheProduct,willbuyorsellfromcustomersonaprincipal basis.Unless statedotherwiseneithertheResearchAnalystnoranymemberoftheirteamhasviewedthematerialoperationsofthe Companiesforwhichan investmentviewhasbeenprovidedwithinthepast12months.Forimportantdisclosures (including copies of historicaldisclosures)regardingthecompanies thatarethe subjectofthis Citi Researchproduct("theProduct")