外汇流动周刊：美元与新兴市场外汇客户资金流分歧

FX Flows Weekly Mixed client flows across USD and EMFX Dirk WillerACdirk.willer@citi.com+1 212-723-1016Alex SaundersACalexander.saunders@citi.com+1 212-723-1058Luis E CostaACluis.costa@citi.com+44 20-7986-9757Bhumika GuptaACbhumika1.gupta@citi.com+44-20-7986-5933Daniel TobonACdaniel.tobon@citi.com+1 212-816-8340Rohit GargACrohit.garg@citi.com+65-6657-3471 Ivan Riveros, CFAACivan.riveros@citi.com+1-212-723-0865Brian LevineACbrian.levine@citi.com+1 212-816-6896 Gordon GohACgordon.goh@citi.com+65-6657-2755 Michael Alexeevmichael.alexeev@citi.com+1-212-816-1167 With thanks to:Stanley Ren See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst AffiliationsCiti Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Certain products (not inconsistent with the author’s published research) are available onlyon Citi’s Take Citi Flows –USD saw net inflows driven by bank buyers and leveraged sellers. EMaggregate also saw net inflows but with drivers opposed to USD: leveraged buyersand bank sellers. Regionally, Asia saw net inflows driven by leveraged buyers andbank sellers. CEEMEA net outflows were driven by leveraged and bank sellers.LatAm net outflows were driven by leveraged and real money buyers withcorporate sellers. Quant –Flows currently favor PEN, CLP & PHP against TRY, CNY & BRL. Currently,traditional carry is crowded in 1m, 3m & 6m leveraged flows. Momentum iscrowded in 1m, 3m & 6m real money flows. Value (PPP) is crowded in 1m leveragedflows. Cross-asset vol is below 4-sigma. In terms of crowded basket at risk from a volspike, HUF, BRL & TRY are the most vulnerable, having been net bought by ourinvestor base. PLN, CNY & CZK saw the most outflows over the last six months. G10 –Our flows indicate a flip from USD selling to buying, mostly driven by banks.Both EUR andJPY continue to experience outflows with leveraged sellingaccelerating. Asia –Investor inflows into EM Asia picked up further, largely driven by strongcontributionsfrom leveraged investors.Leveraged investors drove notableinflows into HKD and TWD. CEEMEA –EM saw overall inflows in the past week, led by leveraged inflows.CEEMEA underperformed by seeing outflows overall. LatAm –The broad Latam FX complex saw net inflows from both the leveragedand real money community, despite the higher global risk aversion. Leveragedcommunity added exposure predominantly in BRL, while real money were CLPbuyers. G10: Strongest Directional Signals G10: Terms of trade back as a flows driver With the US-Iran conflict re-escalating, terms of trade is back as one ofthe primary drivers of FX flows. Indeed, our data over the past weekreflects a clear partition between terms of trade winners vs losers.Namely, we have observed leveraged buying of NOK/CAD/AUDcompared to leveraged selling of EUR/JPY/NZD, as oil and natural gasprices are on the rise. This backdrop is important for USD as well, whereour overall flows indicate a flip from selling to buying. And while theleveraged segment has trimmed some longs ahead of the upcomingFOMC meeting, any continued escalation and rise in energy priceswould likely add to any hawkish sentiment among Fed officials whenthey meet to discuss policy. Asia: Strongest Directional Signals Asia: RMB Strength likely anchored The RMB appreciation this year has been reinforced by a firmer policystance from PBoC, where the recent bias toward stronger daily fixingssignals an intent to anchor expectations and counter externalheadwinds. That said, we reiterate our assessment that policymakersare unlikely to tolerate an unchecked appreciation trend. Instead, thecurrent trajectory suggests a calibrated approach – allowing measuredRMB strength to reflect C/A strength while avoiding excessive gains thatcould invite one-way speculative positioning. Overall, we maintain aconstructive view on the RMB. Fundamentally, China’s robust tradesurplus continues to provide structural underpinning, while activeexporter conversion reinforces onshore RMB demand. Beyond cyclicaldrivers, ongoing RMB internationalization efforts should incentivizepolicymakers to preserve currency stability and enhance relativeattractiveness of RMB-denominated assets. On the policy front, PBoChas consistently signaled a preference for currency stability throughfirmer daily fixings, although the pace of appreciation is beingdeliberately managed to avoid triggering disorderly one-waypositioning. Externally, an improving global risk sentiment alongside theabsence of renewed trade tensions further reduces the tail risks of RMB.Overall, we maintain our view that CNY is likely to move towards around6.75 in the next 3 months