外汇流动周报：美元流动平淡，实盘资金流出新兴市场

FX Flows Weekly Flat USD flows while real money exits EM Dirk WillerACdirk.willer@citi.com+1 212-723-1016Alex SaundersACalexander.saunders@citi.com+1 212-723-1058Luis E CostaACluis.costa@citi.com+44 20-7986-9757Bhumika GuptaACbhumika1.gupta@citi.com+44-20-7986-5933Daniel TobonACdaniel.tobon@citi.com+1 212-816-8340Rohit GargACrohit.garg@citi.com+65-6657-3471 Ivan Riveros, CFAACivan.riveros@citi.com+1-212-723-0865Brian LevineACbrian.levine@citi.com+1 212-816-6896Gordon GohACgordon.goh@citi.com+65-6657-2755Michael Alexeevmichael.alexeev@citi.com+1-212-816-1167Laura Bobbiolaura.bobbio@citi.com+44-20-7508-7794 With thanks to:Irem Sen, Stanley Ren See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst AffiliationsCiti Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Certain products (not inconsistent with the author’s published research) are available onlyon Citi’s Take Citi Flows –USD flows were flat last week. EM aggregate saw net outflows drivenby real money, banks, and leveraged accounts. Regionally, Asia saw net outflowsthat were almost entirely driven by leveraged and real money sellers. CEEMEAwas net flat but saw strong two-way flow with leveraged and real money buyerswhile banks netted out as sellers. LatAm flows saw net selling driven by bank,corporate, and real money sellers with leveraged buyers. Quant –Flows currently favor PHP, COP & ZAR against TRY, MXN & CLP.Traditional carry is crowded for 1m in leveraged and real money as well as 3m forleveraged. Momentum is crowded for 1m real money flows. Value (PPP) is cleanacross all tenors and clients. Vol-adjusted carry (EMFX 5x5) positioning iscrowded in 1m and 3m tenors. Cross-asset vol is below 4-sigma. In terms of crowded basket at risk from a volspike, HUF, BRL & TRY are the most vulnerable, having been net bought by ourinvestor base. INR, CNY & PLN saw the most outflows over the last six months. G10–Our flows indicated USD buying offset by selling of higher betacommodities FX like AUD and NOK. Asia –Investor outflows in EM Asia remained under pressure, with both realmoney and leveraged accounts contributing to the negative flow dynamics. Realmoney investors accounted for notable outflows in both IDR and MYR. CEEMEA –EM saw overall outflows in the past week again, led by real moneyinvestors. However, CEEMEA bucked the trend with real money and leveragedinflows, with continued inflows led by HUF and ZAR by leveraged investors. LatAm –Leveraged investors bought across LatAm currencies on NFP week, withCLP being the exception as the currency remains under pressure from the streamof dovish labor market and economic activity prints. Real money accounts werenet sellers of BRL and COP last week, the former influenced by another week ofstrong presidential election polls for incumbent president Lula. G10: Strongest Directional Signals G10: Flip to net AUD outflows Our data indicates a flip from net AUD buying to selling, marked by asecond consecutive week of leveraged outflows, specifically. We haveturned more cautious on AUD as peak RBA hawkishness could bebehind us and with concerning signs from China’s credit impulse data.Real money inflows have also partially reversed over 2026, which couldreflect less aggressive FX hedging activity from local investors comparedto 2025. Overall, we continue to watch whether this flip from buying toselling continues across segments, with the greatest scope for unwindlikely coming from the leveraged segment given trends we’ve seen incumulative AUD flows. Asia: Strongest Directional Signals Asia: Maintain a bearish view on PHP From our Philippines trip last week, it seems Peso depreciation is havinga limited impact on current account adjustment so far. The BSP has notobserved currency weakness helping to stabilize exports or improve thecurrent account. The governor has tasked analysts to study FX impacton trade balances, but no clear stabilizing effects have emerged yet. It ispossible that export profile has shifted to less FX-sensitive sectors thatmay reduce traditional currency pass-through benefits. Governmentpension funds allocate 30% of AUM to equities, but a large portion goesto foreign equity ETFs due to better returns and liquidity. Open capitalaccount allows easy legal movement of funds abroad, limiting domesticcapital availability. $1.5B IPO planned for Q4 may support peso despitepolitical risks from a 6- to 7-month impeachment trial starting July 6.BSP uses spot and NDF interventions onshore/offshore aiming tomanage supply and signal without hurting reserves. The risk lies inpotential short positions accumulating in fixes, which may