外汇及新兴市场宏观策略季度展望：美元的苦涩胜利

The dollar's bitter triumph... SIGNATURE A degree of premium stickiness implies dollarsoftnessevenaftergeopolitics stabilise, but EURUSD should still tradewithin post-Liberation Day ranges. We upgrade our AUDforecast, expect CHF resilience, and are cautious on GBP, CAD Themistoklis Fiotakis+44 (0) 20 7773 2002themos.fiotakis@barclays.comBarclays, UK LefterisFarmakis+44 (0) 20 3555 6549lefteris.farmakis@barclays.comBarclays, UK Andrea Kiguel+1 212 526 8954andrea.kiguel@barclays.com Mitul Kotecha+ 65 6308 5439mitul.kotecha@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Marek Raczko+44 (0) 20 3134 0089marek.raczko@barclays.comBarclays, UK Shinichiro Kadota+81 3 4530 1374shinichiro.kadota2@barclays.comBSJL, Japan FX & EM Macro Strategy Quarterly Overview Lemon Zhang+65 6308 5137lemon.zhang@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore The dollar's bitter triumph.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 FX & EM Macro Strategy FX & EM Views for the Year Ahead. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Please find our updated FX views and forecasts across G10 and EM currencies. FX & EM Macro Strategy Forecast Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51G10 and EM forecasts. Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its FX & EM Macro Strategy Quarterly Overview The dollar's bitter triumph... ...or why we are becoming a lot less bullish on the USD. A bitter triumph for the dollar:The dollar's reboundafterthe Middle East escalation was areminder of all that makes it mighty: energy independence, technological superiority and Themistoklis Fiotakis +44 (0) 20 7773 2002themos.fiotakis@barclays.comBarclays, UK LefterisFarmakis +44 (0) 20 3555 6549lefteris.farmakis@barclays.comBarclays, UK The enduring reality of a dollar premium:We estimate the dollar premium has been hoveringat c.5% for over a year now (close to the 1-sigma threshold) – much longer than the historicalnorm. The premium did not close with the Middle East escalation and is increasingly correlated Andrea Kiguel+1 212 526 8954andrea.kiguel@barclays.com The path ahead and our views:A balanced dollar view needs to incorporate a path for thispremium. Recent experience suggests a degree of premium will remain evenaftergeopoliticseventually stabilise, which implies some near-term dollarsoftness.US economic resilience intothe mid-terms but also doubts around its sustainability on a likely fiscal gridlock mean EURUSD Mitul Kotecha + 65 6308 5439mitul.kotecha@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Marek Raczko +44 (0) 20 3134 0089marek.raczko@barclays.comBarclays, UK Assessing the risks of an oil shock for EM:Oil in local currency has been a large driver of EMrates moves. The directeffectof high oil prices on energy CPIs could show up fast, and centralbanks can do little to mitigate this. They may have incentives to act quickly to anchorexpectations and keep currencies in check, however, especially where real rates are relatively Shinichiro Kadota +81 3 4530 1374shinichiro.kadota2@barclays.com Lemon Zhang+65 6308 5137lemon.zhang@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore A bitter triumph for the dollar Erick Martinez+1 212 526 9380erick.martinez@barclays.com The events of the past month stand as a reminder of all that makes the dollar mighty. In ourthought paper on the topic we presented a detailed argument why the transformation of the USeconomy to an energy-producing and -exporting superpower is a risk-reducing tailwind for thedollar and an insulating force against global shocks. This is on top of other dimensions of US Sheryl Dong+44 (0) 20 7773 0180sheryl.dong@barclays.comBarclays, UK During the first few weeks of the Iran conflict, the major dollar crosses (such as EUR/USD andcable) have moved in line with our estimates of the dollar's recent oil beta, namely c. 0.5-1%higher for every 10% increase in oil prices ( Figure 1). This sensitivity has been obtained via assetprice correlations at the heyday of US exceptionalism of the last few years and therefore points Audrey Ong + 65 6308 5637audreysz.ong@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Leonardo Crimella +44 (0) 20 7116 3277leonardo.crimella@barclays.comBarclays, UK US growth outcomes during 2025 were also closely aligned with our bullish dollar views,notwithstanding the negativeaftershocksof Liberation Day. Far from getting anywhere close to(the originally feared) recessionary territory, the strong AI-related investment pipeline andeasier fiscal and monetary policy settings helped sustain resilient domestic demand growth And yet there is a strong sense in which dollar performance has been disappointing. This canmost clearly be seen via th