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月度金罗盘:2026年8月

2026-08-15 Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, Mark J. Valek incrementum 李辰
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August 2026 Ronald-PeterStoeferleMark J. Valek TableofContents: 1. Gold2.Silver3. Mining Stocks4.Macro5.Proprietary Models “Because gold is honest money it is dislikedby dishonest men.” Ron Paul Gold (Nominal), and Gold (US CPI Adjusted – June 2026), in USD,01/1970–06/2026 Gold Seasonality, Geometric Mean Monthly Return (lhs), and % PositiveMonths (rhs), 1970–2025 Accumulated Gold ETF Holdings by Region (lhs), in Tonnes, and Gold(rhs), in USD, 01/2004–06/2026 Monthly Gold ETF Flows by Region (lhs), in Tonnes, and Gold (rhs), inUSD, 01/2004–06/2026 2. Silver “Too many people miss the silver lining becausethey’re expecting gold .” Ron Paul Annualized Performance of Silver, in USD, if Bought on the Last Day of theMonth and Held until 07/31/2026 (Holding Period ≥ 1 Year) Silver (Nominal), and Silver (US CPI Adjusted – June 2026), in USD,01/1970–06/2026 Silver Seasonality, Geometric Mean Monthly Return (lhs), and % PositiveMonths (rhs), 1970–2025 3. Mining Stocks “Prospecting for gold is like looking for true love:for every nugget there’s a ton of rock and dirt.” Lord Richard Head IGWT Precious Metals Mining Universe (Market Cap > USD 1bn):Top and Bottom 10 Performers, in USD, 07/31/2026 4. Macro(Inflation, Markets, etc.) “Macro factors don’t always determine the outcome,but ignoring them is a mistake.” Howard Marks Inflation Heat Map (Developed Markets), yoy, 07/2024–06/2026 Inflation Heat Map (Emerging Markets), yoy, 07/2024–06/2026 Fed Interest Rate Policy Implied by Federal Funds Futures (1 = 25 bps),07/2026–12/2028 Gold (lhs, log), in USD, and Real Federal Funds (Federal Funds - CPI)(rhs, inverted), 01/1970–07/2026 Aggregated Central Bank Balance Sheets (Fed, ECB, BoJ, PBoC),in USD trn (lhs), and yoy (rhs), 01/2000–06/2026 M2 (US, EU, JP, CN, GB, CH), in USD trn (lhs), and yoy (rhs),01/2000–06/2026 5. Proprietary Models “When paper money systems begin to crack at the seams,the run to gold could be explosive.” Harry Browne Incrementum Active Aurum Signal, and HUI Index, in USD,08/2021–07/2026 Old 60/40 Portfolio* and New 60/40 Portfolio**, in USD, 100 = 05/17/2024,05/2024–07/2026 Approximated Gold Price in 2030 by Distribution Probabilityaccording to theIGWT Gold Price Model Performance and CAGR of Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks**, andCommodities*** in Bull Market Decades, in USD, 12/1969–07/2026 Beyond the Gold Compass “Knowledge is of no valueunless you put it into practice.” Anton Chekhov 2026 Precious Metals Summit–Beaver Creek, September 22–25, 2026 Ronald-Peter Stöferle Denver Gold Group Mining Forum Americas 2026–Colorado Springs,September 27–30, 2026 Ronald-Peter Stöferle 2026 Precious Metals Summit–Zurich, November 9–11, 2026 Ronald-Peter Stöferle Swiss Mining Institute–Zurich, November 18–19, 2026 Ronald-Peter Stöferle Mines and Money @ Resourcing Tomorrow–London, December 1–3, 2026 Discover Our Whole Universe of Publications and Social Media Channels JoinUsonOurGoldenJourney! Publications OurFunds InadditiontotheInGoldWeTrustReport–thegoldstandardofgoldreports–weregularlypublishrelevant studies,reportsandchartbooksontheinvestmenttopicsofgold,cryptoandfunds. Itisourgoaltoofferinvestmentproductsforthesetimesofexcessivestructuraldebtandnegative realinterestratesthatmeettherequirementsofthenewinvestmentparadigm. SUBSCRIBE NOW DISCOVER OUR FUNDS About the Authors Ronald-PeterStoeferle, CMT •Ronald-PeterStöferleisManaging PartnerandFundManageratIncrementum AG.•Previously spentseven years in the research team at ErsteGroupin Vienna.•Has been publishing theIn Gold We Trustreportannuallysince2007, which has achievedinternational recognition.•Co-authorof the bestsellerAustrian School for Investors(2014), alongsideRahimTaghizadeganandMark Valek.•Co-authoredThe Zero Interest Trap (2019).•Board memberofTudor GoldandGoldstormMetals.•Advisor to VON GREYERZ AG since 2020and toMonetaryMetals since 2024. About the Authors Mark J. Valek, CAIA •Mark J. ValekisPartnerandFund ManageratIncrementum AG.•Previously spentover ten years at Raiffeisen CapitalManagement, most recently as afund manager in the Multi-Asset Strategies department.•Responsible forinflation hedging strategies and alternativeinvestments, managingportfolios worth several hundredmillion euros.•Co-author of the bookAustrian School for Investors(2014),alongsideRahimTaghizadeganandRonald-PeterStöferle.•Serial entrepreneur, including asco-founder ofphiloroEdelmetalleGmbH.•Since2024, he has served as anadvisor to MonetaryMetals. Sound Money Capital AGIndustriering 219491–Ruggell/Liechtensteinoffice@ingoldwetrust.li ingoldwetrust.report Disclaimer This publication is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, investment analysis or an invitation to buy or sell financialinstruments.In particular, thisdocument is not intended to replace individual investment or other advice. The information contained in this publication isbased on the state of knowledge at the time of pr