首次覆盖立讯H股给予买入；2027年起光通信与铜缆的替代标的 Luxshare

Initiate Luxshare-H at Buy; A Proxy to Optics and Copper from 2027E CITI'S TAKE Kyna WongAC+852-2868-7820kyna.wong@citi.com We initiate coverage on Luxshare-H (2475.HK) with a Buy rating andHK$84.0 target price (based on P/E of 19.0x 2027E EPS) following thestock’sHKEx listing on 9 July 2026.We also raise our Luxshare-A(002475.SZ, Buy) target price to Rmb86.0 (from Rmb77.0), based on targetP/E of 22.3x set 1SD above five-year average P/E and rolled forward to2027E basis, driven by improving visibility on optical transceivers and CPCopportunity in 2027. We raise our 2027E/28E net profits by 19%/35% drivenby new growth drivers from optics/copper, partially offset by consumerelectronics weakness. We adjust 2026E/27E/28E EPS by -4%/+13%/+28%to factor in our updated model and shares dilution post H-share listing. Thelatest fundraising provides more cash for overseas capacity expansion andR&D initiatives for new business drivers. Karen Huang+852-2501-2755karen.xw.huang@citi.com Kevin Chen+852-2501-2125kevin.y.chen@citi.com Yiming Li, CFA+852-2501-2857yiming.li@citi.com Optics and copper new drivers from 2027—We forecast <1mn/7.6mn/14.8mndatacom optical transceiver module shipments in 2026E/27E/28E, contributingRmb1.9/24.8/48.0bn revenue respectively. We also believe Luxshare could start tobenefit from 224/448G CPC for high-density supernodes connectivity from late2027. Net-net, we project communication revenue to grow at 38%/89%/51% YoY in2026E/27E/28E. Core business remains resilient—We forecast iPhone build to grow 8% YoY to266mn in 2026E, suggesting a solid iOS business for first three quarters in 2026E.Apple is likely to maintain its market-share expansion strategy along with the tightmemory supply cycle. New wearable/IoT devices may provide incremental contentas well, e.g. camera TWS, AI glasses, etc. Non-Apple business also stays resilientdespite market weakness; drivers are increasing laptop orders, AI edge devices, andsmart home products. In auto, Leoni profitability is on track to improve continuously. Estimates & valuation—We update our model and adjust 2026E/27E/28E EPS by-4%/+13%/+28% to factor in latest iOS assumptions, new optics and copperinterconnects contribution, and shares dilution post H-share listing. We raiseLuxshare-A target price by 12% to Rmb86.0, still based on updated upcycle P/E of22.3x (1SD above 5-year average, and rolled forward to 2027E basis, driven byimproving visibility on AI datacenter upgrade, supported by 33% three-year CAGR.Our H-share target price of HK$84.0 is based on 19.0x 2027E P/E, a 15% discount toour A-share target P/E. The H-share has traded at a 15-20% discount to A-sharesince 9 July. Reiterate Buy on A-share and initiate H-share at Buy; on a relative basis,we currently prefer H-share to A-share based on valuation. Catalysts and risks—We see near-term catalysts including 3Q26E NP guidance inAugust, likely new smartphone model launches in Sep (iPhone 18), production rampfor 800G/1.6T optical transceiver module in late 2026. Key risks include delay inoptics/CPC ramp, lower-than-expected growth in global smartphones / tablets /automotive / XR and AI smart glasses, reverse of electronic device tariff exemptions,share loss at the key US iOS customer, and FX volatility due to macro uncertainties. Adding Upside 90-Day Short-Term View on Luxshare PrecisionIndustry (002475.SZ) UpsideWithin 90 DaysEarnings and Thematic driven Direction: Duration:Category: We expect 2Q26 results and 3Q26 guidance to provide support to the share price. The improving visibility for 2H27 iPhone,AI edge devices, camera TWS would be further catalysts, on top of initial ramp of 800G/1.6T datacom optical transceiversfrom late-2026. Adding Upside 90-Day Short-Term View on Luxshare PrecisionIndustry Co Ltd (2475.HK) UpsideWithin 90 DaysEarnings and Thematic driven Direction:Duration:Category: We expect 2Q26 results and 3Q26 guidance to provide support to the share price. The improving visibility for 2H27 iPhone,AI edge devices, camera TWS would be further catalysts, on top of initial ramp of 800G/1.6T datacom optical transceiversfrom late-2026. Luxshare Precision Industry Company description Luxshare is a leading consumer electronics connector provider, withapplications including PCs, smartphones, wearable devices, tablets, andgame consoles. The company also has exposure in telecom and automotiveconnectors. Investment strategy We rate Luxshare A-shares as Buy. Our positive thesis is premised on: 1) thecompany gaining market share in smartphone components and assembly; 2)the company gaining market share in automotive connectors andcommunication component connectors; 3) management’s strong executionrecord and strategic approach; and 4) investments in R&D and automatedprocesses, which support production efficiency. Valuation Our Rmb86.0 target price for the A-shares is based on 22.3x 2027E P/E, setat 1std above historical five-year average, driven by improving visibility onoptic