中芯国际（0981.HK）：穿越周期的规模化扩张，约束下的实力强化——首次覆盖给予买入评级

constraints; initiate at BUY Scaling through cycles, strengthening throughconstraints; initiate at BUY Weinitiate coverage on Semiconductor Manufacturing InternationalCorporation’s(SMIC)H-sharewith aBUY rating and TP of HK$110.SMICis China’s core wafer manufacturing platform, combining domestic scale, broadmature/specialty process coverage, advanced-logic capability and deep accessto China’s fabless ecosystem. The investmentangleis shifting from capacityexpansion to1)capacity conversion, withprior capex moving into qualified 12-inch output,2)utilizationrateremainingelevated,3)ASP improving on mix, and Target PriceHK$110.00Up/DownsideCurrent Price China Semiconductors Kevin ZHANG(852) 3761 8727kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk Aaron GUO(852) 3916 3715aaronguo@cmbi.com.hk SMIC is entering a more disciplined growth phase.We believe theCompany’s next phase is less about adding capacity and more aboutconverting prior capex into qualified 12-inch output.We forecastitsrevenueto grow 22%/14%/12% in 2026/27/28E, driven by elevated utilization, ASPimprovement fromafavorable product mix and gradualcapacity conversionacross existing 12-inch fabs. The company’s 2Q26 guidance of 14–16%QoQ revenue growth and 20–22% GPM confirms stronger shipments, better AIsupports SMIC’s broader chip offerings rather than domesticacceleratorsalone.AI-driven supply tightness is lifting demand forsupporting chips such asPMIC, BCD, RF, CIS, specialty memory, datatransmission and connectivity, while localization demand continues to shiftdomesticfabless customers toward local foundry capacity.SMIC’sadvanced-logic roadmap also adds strategic optionality for selected We value SMIC at5.0x FY27E P/B, applied to FY27E BVPS of US$2.8(HK$22.2 based on US$/HK$exchange rate of7.82), deriving aTPofHK$110.We believethevaluationis justifiedby SMIC’s unique domesticposition, capacity monetization potential and strategic scarcity in China’ssemiconductor supply chain.Key risksinclude tighter WFE restrictions, Source: FactSet Investment thesis China’s irreplaceable foundry platform SMIC is China’s leadingfoundry by scale, manufacturing footprint, process breadth andadvanced-logic capability. In a market increasingly defined by supply security, localizationand constrained access to overseas advanced nodes, SMIC is not just a cyclical foundry Capacity conversion drives the next growth phase SMIC is moving from capacity buildout to capacity conversion. Prior capex is turning intousable 12-inch output, while utilization remains elevated and ASP isimproving on a betterproduct mix. We forecast revenue to grow 22%/14%/12%YoYin 2026/27/28E, supported AI spillover supports utilization and ASPresilience SMIC’s AI exposure is broader than domestic accelerator wafers. AI demand is tighteningsupply in supporting chips such aspowermanagementICs (PMIC),bipolar-CMOS-DMOS(BCD),radio frequency (RF),CMOS image sensors(CIS),specialty memory,datatransmission and connectivity, while localization demand continues to pull more domesticfabless customers toward local wafer capacity. This helps SMIC defend utilization through Advanced logic adds scarcity value SMIC’sadvanced-logic roadmap remains important because domestic AI and high-performance logic customers need a local manufacturing path. Limited EUV/latest DUVaccess means progress depends on installed ArFi DUV tools, multi-patterning,design-technologyco-optimization (DTCO), yield tuning and process optimization. This path is Initiate at BUY with TP of HK$110 We value SMIC at5.0x FY27E P/B, applied to FY27E BVPS of US$2.8, equivalent toHK$22.2 based on US$/HK$ of 7.82, deriving aTPof HK$110.We believe the valuation isjustified by SMIC’s unique domestic position, improving capacity monetization and strategic Contents China’s irreplaceable foundry platform............................................................................2Capacity conversion drives the next growth phase.........................................................2AI spillover supports utilization and ASP resilience.........................................................2Advanced logic adds scarcity value.................................................................................2Initiate at BUY with TP of HK$110...................................................................................2Industry overview..........................................................................4 Global foundries in the AI age: Manufacturing scarcity expands beyond wafer capacity4China’s domestic foundry market: A localization-led platform cycle, not a weakerversion of the global advanced-node race.......................................................................8Diverse end-market demand to drive structural growth through cycles........................10 Competitive landscape.................................................................12 AI frontier concentration vs China’s constrained advanced-logic path..........................12Limit