波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那非金融企业脆弱性与银行关联

Non-Financial CorporateVulnerabilities and BankLinkages in Bosnia andHerzegovina Carlos de Resende, Estefania Cohn Bech, Adrian Music, and Ian Stuart SIP/2026/079 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on July 10, 2026. This paper is alsopublished separately as IMF Country Report No 26/206. 2026AUG IMFSelected IssuesPaper European Department Non-Financial Corporate Vulnerabilities and Bank Linkages in Bosnia and HerzegovinaPrepared byCarlos de Resende, Estefania Cohn Bech, Adrian Music, and Ian Stuart Authorized for distribution by David AmaglobeliAugust2026 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on July 10, 2026. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 26/206. ABSTRACT:This paper examines vulnerabilities in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s nonfinancial corporate (NFC)sector and their implications for banking sector capital adequacy. Using aggregate business statistics and firm-level balance-sheet data, it assesses that corporate financial health has improved significantly over the pastdecade, based on favorable evolution of leverage, liquidity, profitability, and debt-servicing capacity. The mainfinding is that, in a context of strong bank-corporate linkages, a plausible adverse macro-financial shock wouldunevenly increase vulnerabilities across economic sectors, but the stronger corporate fundamentals, especiallylower stock of debt-at-risk, and high bank capital buffers would limit its impact on the banking system. RECOMMENDED CITATION:de Resende, Carlos, Adrian Music, Ian Stuart, and Estefania Cohn Bech. 2026.Non-Financial Corporate Vulnerabilities and Bank Linkages in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Selected Issues Paper(SIP/26/079), International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Non-Financial CorporateVulnerabilities and Bank Linkagesin Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnia and Herzegovina Prepared byCarlos de Resende, Estefania Cohn Bech, Adrian Music, andIan Stuart BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByEuropean DepartmentPrepared ByCarlos de Resende, Estefania Cohn Bech, AdrianMusic, and Ian Stuart (all EUR). CONTENTS NON-FINANCIAL CORPORATE VULNERABILITIES AND BANK LINKAGES INBOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA________________________________________________________2 A. Introduction_________________________________________________________________________2B. Background__________________________________________________________________________2C. Analyzing NFC Balance Sheet Structure______________________________________________4D. NFC and Banking Sector Interlinkages_____________________________________________11E. Sensitivity and Stress Analysis______________________________________________________12F. Conclusion_________________________________________________________________________15 FIGURES 1. Aggregated Firm Balance Sheet Information by Sector______________________________52. Composition of Corporate Assets by Sector and Firm Size___________________________53. Composition of Corporate Liabilities and Debt by Sector and Firm Size______________64. Non-Financial Corporate Debt in BiH________________________________________________75. NFC Indebtedness Indicators_________________________________________________________76. Structure and Distribution of Short-Term Corporate Debt___________________________87. Liquidity Indicators___________________________________________________________________88. Profitability Indicators________________________________________________________________99. Debt-Servicing Capacity Indicators_________________________________________________1010. Trends in Lending Rates by Loan Sizes____________________________________________1311. Post-Shock Outcomes____________________________________________________________14 TABLES 1. Sectoral Composition of NFCs in BiH_________________________________________________32. Aggregated Firm Balance Sheet Information by Firm Size, 2024_____________________53. Bank Capital Impact, 2024__________________________________________________________14 NON-FINANCIALCORPORATEVULNERABILITIES ANDBANK LINKAGES IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA1 This paper examines vulnerabilities in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s non‑financial corporate (NFC) sectorand their implications for the capital adequacy of the banking sector. It uses aggregate businessstatistics and detailed firm‑level balance sheet data todescribe keyfeatures of the NFC sector’sevolution over the past 15 years, assess its resilience to a severe macro-financial shock, and thepossible spillovers to the banking sector. BiH’s NFCs appear to have become more resilient over time,according to a range of financial indicators of liquidity, indebtedness, profitability, and capacity tos