加纳能源部门：从财政脆弱到持续增长的平台

Ghana’s Energy Sector From Fiscal Vulnerability to a Platform forSustained Growth Valerio Crispolti SIP/2026/086 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackgrounddocumentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed onJuly10,2026. This paper is alsopublished separately as IMF Country Report No26/213. 2026AUG IMFSelected IssuesPaperAfricanDepartment Ghana’s Energy Sector: From Fiscal Vulnerability to a Platform for Sustained GrowthPrepared byValerio Crispolti Authorized for distribution byRuben AtoyanAugust2026 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted onJuly 10,2026. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No26/213. ABSTRACT:Ghana’s energy sector is central to industrialization and inclusive growth, but persistent tariff,distribution, and collection gaps have made it a source of fiscalrisk. Sector shortfalls and arrears to powerproducers and fuel suppliers require government transfers, weaken fiscal buffers, and undermine reliability.Recent reforms, supported by anIMFprogram,havehelpedstabilize conditionsbyresuming periodictariffadjustments, strongtheningCash Waterfall Mechanism implementation, andreducingarrears. Nevertheless,vulnerabilities remain. Durable progress requires disciplined tariff-setting, payment enforcement, arrearsclearance, lower losses, private distribution participation, transparent procurement, and stronger governance tosupport investment and reliable electricity supply. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Crispolti, Valerio. “Ghana’s Energy Sector: From Fiscal Vulnerability to aPlatform for Sustained Growth.”IMFSelected Issues Paper26/86. Ghana’s Energy Sector From Fiscal Vulnerability to a Platform for SustainedGrowth Prepared byValerio Crispolti GHANA ENERGY SECTOR: FROM FISCAL VULNERABILITY TO APLATFORM FOR SUSTAINED GROWTH July 10, 2026 ApprovedByAfrican Department Prepared By Valerio Crispolti CONTENTS GHANA'S ENERGY SECTOR: FROM FISCAL VULNERABILITY TO A PLATFORM FORSUSTAINED GROWTH________________________________________________________________ 2 A. Introduction _________________________________________________________________________2B. How Ghana’s Electricity Sector Works ________________________________________________3C. Why Ghana’s Electricity Sector is a Source of Fiscal Risks ____________________________6D. The Sector’s Financial Position _____________________________________________________ 10E. ECF-Supported Reforms: Progress and Remaining Gaps ___________________________ 12F. Policy Priorities: From Stabilization to Transformation______________________________ 14 BOXES 1. Ghana's Regulatory and Tariff Framework__________________________________________ 102. Energy Sector Reform Slippages in 2024 ___________________________________________ 14 FIGURES 1. Sector Value Chain ___________________________________________________________________42. Sector Financial Flows ________________________________________________________________53. Ghana’s Generation Costs: Key Drivers and Transmission Channels __________________74. Propagation Mechanism _____________________________________________________________85. Driver of Sector’s Financial Imbalances (2024)________________________________________96. Recent Developments in Ghana’s Energy Sector ___________________________________ 117. Tariffs and ECG Revenue Collection ________________________________________________ 13 TABLES 1. Key Sector Entities and Financial Performance (2024) ______________________________ 17 GHANA'S ENERGY SECTOR: FROM FISCALVULNERABILITY TO A PLATFORM FOR SUSTAINEDGROWTH1 A.Introduction 1.Ghana’s Medium-term National Development Policy Framework places reliable andaffordable electricity at the center of industrialization, digitalization, job creation, andinclusive growth.Initiatives such as the authorities’ 24-Hour Economy Strategy2and Ghana'sNational Energy Compact (GNEC)3underscore the centrality of the power sector in supportingmanufacturing, agro-processing, and services activity. Empirical evidence shows that firms in thesesectors are highly vulnerable to power outages which impose direct costs through lost output,equipment damage, and reliance on expensive backup generation.4,5Achieving these objectives willrequire a step change in the reliability, affordability, and financial sustainability of electricity supply. 2.However, the energy sector has not consistently played this enabling role. Instead, ithas been a persistent source of fiscal pressure and macroeconomic vulnerability. The sectorcontinues to generate sizable financial shortfalls, estimated at about 1–1½ percent of GDP in recentyears, and has accumulated significant arrears to independent power producers (IPPs) and fuelsuppliers (FS). These imbalances have req