从政策到影响：亚美尼亚的财政影响分析

From Policy to Impact:Fiscal IncidenceAnalysis in Armenia ii© 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Website:www.worldbank.orgThis work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusionsexpressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governmentsthey represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors,denominations, links/footnotes and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bankconcerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank,all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and PermissionsThe material in this publication is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank Group encourages dissemination of its knowledge,this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given.Attribution— Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2025.From Policy to Impact: Fiscal Incidence Analysis in Armenia.Washington, DC: World Bank Group.Translations— If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bankshall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.Adaptations— If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the soleresponsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank.Third-party content— The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work.The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the workwill not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If youwish to reuse a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that reuse and toobtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images.Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division,The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; email:pubrights@worldbank.orgCover and other pictures: Designed and generated by Team Design at Midjourney.Report and Cover design: Team Design & A.K. ContentsAbbreviationsAcknowledgmentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARYCHAPTER ONE:The Impact ofFiscalPolicy onPoverty andInequality1.1.Fiscal Policy Context1.1.1.TaxSystem:Overview1.1.2.PublicExpenditure:Overview1.2.Redistributive Impact of Fiscal Policy1.2.1.Impact of Fiscal Policy on Poverty1.2.2.Impact of Fiscal Policy onInequality1.2.3.NetPayers andReceivers of theFiscalSystem1.2.4.TheProgressivity of theFiscalSystem1.2.5.Marginal Contributions to Inequality Reduction1.2.6.Marginal Contributions toPovertyReduction1.2.7.TheIncidence ofFiscalInterventions1.2.8.Conclusion1.2.9.Limitations of theAnalysisCHAPTER TWO:TheDistributionalImpact ofUniversalHealthInsurance2.1.TheHealthSystem in Armenia2.2.TheUniversalHealthCareSystem2.3.Simulating theImpact of a UHISystem2.4.Estimating theDistributionalImpact of the UHISystem2.5.Results2.6.Conclusion2.7.LimitationsReferencesAPPENDIX A: Data and MethodologyA.1.Concepts and MethodologyA.2.Data SourcesA.3.The Commitment to Equity FrameworkA.4.LimitationsAPPENDIX B: Sensitivity Analysis:Pensions as Deferred IncomeAPPENDIX C:Current Health System and Expenditure in Armenia iiiviiviii101416181920242426262727293233343542424243464853 67891221 ivAPPENDIXD:Survey of Approaches for Incorporating the Healthcare Benefits in Poverty Estimates55APPENDIX E: Inclusion of Health Benefits in Armenia Poverty Estimates61APPENDIX F: Simulating the Distributional Impact of Health Benefits64F.1.Monetization and Inclusion of Health Benefits in the Baseline Commitment to Equity(CEQ) Analysis64F.2.Simulating Insurance Premium Payments and the Identification of Payers66F.3.Estimation of the Benefits67F.4.Measuring the Distributional Impact71 FiguresFigure1.1Figure1.2Figure1.3Figure1.4Figure1.5Figure1.6Figure1.7Figure1.8Figure1.9Figure 1.10Figure 1.11Figure1.12Figure 1.13Figure1.14Figure1.15Figure1.16Figure1.17Figure1.18Figure2.1Figure2.2Figure2.3Figure2.4Figure2.5FigureA.1FigureB.1FigureB.2Figure