能源与材料安全：四大投资机会

materials Asia-Pacific ReinstateAus Oil & Gas:energysecurityputs growth back in focusWith the renewed focus on energy security, our analyst Cameron Needham reinstated coverage of the Chris Oberoi>>Head of APAC ResearchMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) Australian Oil & Gas sector (see note) with Santos at Buy (see note) and Woodside at Neutral (see note). He chris.oberoi@bofa.comChristine Tan >>Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) thinks Australian liquified natural gas (LNG) is increasingly transitioning from a growth story to optimization.infrastructure. Cameron points out that Australia accounts for around 18% of global LNG supply, energystronger production growth outlook, attractive valuation and more resilient reserve replacement profile.InitiateYunnanGermaniumatBuy:Alopticalmaterials>germanium christine.tan2@bofa.comKaspar Lam >>Research AnalystMerill Lynch (Hong Kong) kaspar.lam@bofa.comMiriam Chan, CFA >>Research Analyst Merill Lynch (Hong Kong)miriam.chan@bofa.comKatherine Zhu >>Research Analyst Ouranalyst Miriam Chan initiated Yunnan Germanium (YG)at Buy (see note),highlighting its unique exposureto two structural themes: Al optical infrastructure growth and critical-mineral supply security. YG has evolved from a leading germanium producer into China's largest listed Indium Phosphide (InP) substrate supplier. InPremains indispensable across next-generation optical networks. Miriam expects China's tightening indiumsuppliers; and 2) accelerate China Al optical producers' import substitution away from overseas suppliers forInP substrate. She forecasts InP to become YG's primary earnings driver, with gross profit contribution risingfrom just over 10% in 2025 to more than 70% by 2027. Beyond InP, germanium remains an important sourceof earnings support and strategic optionality. It provides exposure to satellite solar cells, aerospace Merill Lynch (Hong Kong)kexin.zhu@bofa.comCameron Needham >>Research Analyst Merill Lynch (Australia)cameron.needham@bofa.com Kingboard Laminates a new Buy: Al specialty glass sales to kick-off Our analyst Katherine Zhu initiated Kingboard Laminates (see note), the largest traditional CCL supplier and the industry's most vertically integrated player, at Buy. While its core exposure remains in automotive anddriven by surging Al-related demand. The company is highly leveraged to CCL price increases given its in-Al exposure through specialty glass fiber cloth sales and has already secured certifications from leading Al CCLsuppliers such as EMC and Panasonic. Following recent share price correction and with 60%+ earnings CAGRover the next 2 years, Katherine believes current risk-reward profile for the stock is attractive. Exhibit 2: Stocks mentionedRatings, POs, Market Cap, and ADTV for stocks mentioned in this report Kingboard Laminates (KGBLF) We set our PO at HK53, on 12x 2H26-1H27E P/E. 12x is at +0.5SD of KBL's historical trading range, and matches with its last earnings upcycle in 2021 (led by e-glass price hike). materials esp. cloth, (3) slower-than-expected Al server demand, and (4) slower-than-expected external glass fiber clothsales. Our $8.9O/share price objective is derived based on blended NAV and EV/EBITDA valuation methodologies.We apply 75/25% weightings respectively, as we think long-term project value (Pikka, Barossa, Papua LNG) increasingly definesstandard deviation above STO's long-term average, reflecting reduced execution risk following Barossa and Pikka rampprofile. Our NAV approach uses an 8% WACC and no terminal growth rate, as we model to 2P reserves. Upside risks to our PO are higher-than-forecast oil and LNG prices, higher-than-expected production and sales volumes,lower-than-forecast unit production costs and capex costs. Downside risks to our PO are lower-than-expected oil and LNG prices, lower-than-expected production and sales WoodsideEnergyGroup(WOPEF)Our A$33.40 (US$23.21) price objective is based on 75%/25% weighting of NAV and NTM EV/EBITDA, which we believe provides an appropriate balance between underlying asset value and market-based valuation. Our NAV reflectsOur NAV is based on a 7.5% WACC with zero terminal value.We use a 5.4x EV/EBITDA multiple for our market-basedvaluation, circa one standard deviation above WDS's 3y historical average to reflect near-term volume growth atScarborough and a more global, diversified portfolio Upside risks to our PO: higher than forecast oil and LNG prices, lower than forecast capex and opex and progress insanctioning its growth projects. Downside risks to our PO: lower than forecast oil and LNG prices, lower than expected production due to unplannedoutages, higher operating costs and cost overruns or delays at its growth projects. YunnanGermanium(XYLXF) 2027E and 60% in 2028E), low PEG ratio, ROE improving sharply, and increasing exposure to Al-driven opticalinfrastructure through InP substrates. As InP becomes the dominant profit contributor, we expect investors tocommodity producers. ex