拉美宏观月度报告：风险交织

LatAm Macro Monthly Cacophony of Risks August 2026 Beatriz GarciaNunesLatAmEconomist+1212250-9584 Francisco CamposChief LatAm Economist+1-212-250-976 Table of Contents Top Economic ReleasesMacro ForecastsPolicy Rate ForecastsMacro Heatmaps page 03page 04page 06page 07 1.MacroOverview1.1 Brazil1.2Mexico1.3Andeans page 09page 10page 11 2.Macro Highlights2.1 Brazil2.22Mexico2.3AndeansRecent Publications page 12page 24page 38 page 58 LatAm and Select EM: Growth and Inflation Snapshot Growth near trend slows disinflation. LatAmand SelectEM: FiscalandBoP Snapshot Brazil's debt and Colombia's deficit stand out. BoP supports Mexico and Peru and weighs on Brazil Macro Overview: Brazil 2026. The current fiscal stance does not support debt stability.Without corrective measures, such as de-link expenditures and another socialsecurity reform, debt/GDP will reach 90%+ in coming years.The governing coalition's electoral prospects for Congress is a risk worthmonitoringasmeasurestobolsteritsreelectionviabilitycouldhavefiscalimplications.The 12-month primary deficit reached 1.2% of GDP in June. Revenues remainresilient, helped by a tight labor market, higher oil prices, and tax collectionmeasures, but H1 expenditure rose by more than 10% y/y.The medium-term fiscal outlook remains challenging regardless of the electionoutcome. Polls still point to two rounds (Oct. 4 and Oct. 25); President Lula's run-off lead over Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro remains around 5pp..A third-way candidacy such as Gov. Caiado's faces a difficult path while Sen.Bolsonaro stays in the race, despite Banco Master and tariff headlines.Activity: Softer cadence, consumption support Economic activity grew 0.1% m/m SA and 0.8% y/y NSA in May, with services still leading growth.We pencil in 1.9% growth for 2026 and 1.7% in 2027 as fiscal stimulus, a tightlabor market, and debt relief programs offset monetary drag and weakconfidence.Unemployment stood at 5.4% in June, the lowest for the month since 2012,though job creation shows signs of deceleration. BoP: Falling shortfall on the back of softer domestic activity June's current account deficit narrowed vs. last year as fuel exports lifted thetrade surplus by Uss3.6bn; oil exports and relatively favorable harvests shouldkeep supporting it in H2.Net FDI reached USs9.1bn in June, the highest level since 2013, while reservesdeclined to USs367.6bn mainly on FX valuation effects.The potential softening of the global economy, its ensuing decline in commoditydemand, and heightened risk-averse capital flows could dampen somewhat thepositive terms-of-trade effect on Brazil's external position. Inflation and monetary policy: Cautious easing Headline and core inflation eased in June to 0.16% m/m (4.72% y/y) and 0.32%m/m (4.59% y/y), respectively; the trend should continue in July as indicated by adownside half-month print (IPCA-15) surprise.Food deflation and incipient services softening are helping disinflation, while2027-28 expectations have edged higher.Bacen cut rates another25bp, in line with expectations. We continue to expectrates to remain at 14.0% through year-end, although risks are tilted toward oneadditional cut; the evolution of inflation expectations will determine whetherBacen pauses or eases further in September, in our view.Risks to the September meeting are skewed to another 25bp cut, as softer short-terminflationandactivitydatacouldjustifythemove. Fiscal trends: The Achilles heel that won't heal anytime soon .Revenues have generally remained stable in H1, while primary spending has Reduced judicial certainty,alleged ties between politicians and criminal seena moderate uptick.The 2027 preliminary guidelines are indicative of the administration's intent tokeep fiscal accounts stable despite the fluid external backdrop.Our more subdued growth outlook relative to the government's underpins ourview that fiscal balances will be similar to those observed last year.The medium-term projections underscore the increased rigidity and inertia ofpublic outlays. The continued need to support Pemex poses downside risks tothe fiscal outlook. Revenue-enhancing reforms will likely need to beimplemented before Sheinbaum's tenure ends, in our view. organizations, persistent security shortcomings, and the economy's subparperformance have dented the regime's aura of good governance.The Sheinbaum administration maintains a pragmatic approach towards the revision of the USMCA. However, US pressures on non-trade issues generatevexing dilemmas that further complicate the trade negotiations. Activity: Economy bounced in Q2 but structural headwinds persist The economy rebounded in Q2, expanding 1.5% SA q/q (2.2% NSA y/y), therebyavoiding a technical recession after the Q1 contraction.Yet, structural headwinds (reduced judicial certainty, systemic insecurityconditions, aggressive tax collection tactics, red tape, lack of more favorableconditions for investment in the energy sector, and prolonged uncertai