TMTB早报：科技股财报亮眼 美股表现分化

TMT BREAKOUTAUG 07, 2026∙PAID. Good morning. QQQs +77bps on a night that felt the opposite of the previous evening:much better Tech earnings print.The standouts came from software withTEAM(+27%) TWLO (+18%)andNET (+15%)all showing accelerating growth.We thinkwhat’s good for app sw is ultimately good for the AI semi trade as well, asSemidescribed in TMTB Slack last night:..... 早上好。纳指100 ETF (QQQs)上涨77个基点，今晚的情绪与昨晚截然不同：科技股财报表现远超预期。软件股表现尤为亮眼，TEAM (+27%)、TWLO(+18%)和NET (+15%)均显示出增⻓加速的态势。我们认为，应⽤软件⾏业的利好最终也将利好AI半导体交易，正如Semi昨晚在TMTB Slack中所描述的：...... Despite better software prints, it’s nice to see no factor whiplash this morning asbetter breadth continues to dominate the market over the past few days.Semis+2.8%withSoftware +1.4%.It feels we might be turning a page on the factorwhiplash near-term.In macro land, yields dipping 6-9bps across the curve while crudeis flat....... 尽管软件股财报表现更佳，但令⼈欣慰的是，今早并未出现因⼦剧烈波动（factor whiplash），过去⼏天市场依然由更好的普涨⾏情主导。半导体板块上涨2.8%，软件板块上涨1.4%。感觉我们可能正在告别短期的因⼦剧烈波动。宏观⽅⾯，各期限收益率下降6-9个基点，⽽原油价格持平。.. We’ll hit the usual first then move onto earnings recapsfor NET, TEAM, TWLO,AKAM, MCHP, ABNB, & TTD.... 我们将先照例回顾常规内容，然后进⼊NET、TEAM、TWLO、AKAM、MCHP、ABNB和TTD的财报总结。.. Happy Friday!Let’s get to it…. 周五快乐！让我们开始吧……. TECH/RESEARCH NEWS科技/研究新闻... U: HSBC, BofA and Deutsche Bank All Upgrade to Buy asVector Growth Inflects and Runtime Data Expands theRunway.... U：汇丰银⾏、美国银⾏和德意志银⾏均上调评级⾄“买⼊”，因Vector业务增⻓迎来拐点且Runtime数据拓展了增⻓空间.. HSBC, BofA and Deutsche Bank all upgrade U to Buy following a much stronger 2Q,with HSBC raising its PT to$47.10 from$28.50, BofA to$50 from$30 and DB to$50from$31.HSBCsays Vector’s 23% q/q growth and sustained multi-quarteracceleration put earlier adoption concerns to rest, while HSBC believes broader 28-day attribution, better bidding data and future runtime integration support a 52%FY25–27 Grow revenue CAGR versus roughly 38% for APP and justify valuation closerto AppLovin.BofAsays the quarter provides the first financial validation that runtimedata can materially improve Vector targeting, with only about 30% of Unity 6 gamesrepresented today and roughly 75% of campaigns still not using D28 ROAS; BofAtherefore expects >20% q/q Vector growth in both 3Q and 4Q and raises CY27EBITDA to$1.29B from$789M.DBsays Vector’s +90% y/y growth reflects arepeatable model-improvement cycle rather than temporary spend, and DB raises.......... FY26/FY27 revenue estimates by 4%/11% and EBITDA by 17%/36%, arguing improvingtop-line durability plus removal of non-core businesses creates visibility towardroughly 50% annual adjusted EBITDA growth from FY25–28.... 在Unity (U)发布强劲的第⼆季度财报后，汇丰银⾏、美国银⾏和德意志银⾏均将其评级上调⾄“买⼊”。汇丰银⾏将⽬标价从28.50美元上调⾄47.10美元，美国银⾏从30美元上调⾄50美元，德意志银⾏从31美元上调⾄50美元。汇丰银⾏表示，Vector业务23%的环⽐增⻓以及持续多季度的加速增⻓消除了此前市场对采⽤率的担忧；同时，汇丰认为更⼴泛的28天归因、更好的竞价数据以及未来的Runtime集成将⽀撑2025-2027财年Grow业务收⼊实现52%的复合年增⻓率（相⽐之下APP约为38%），并证明其估值应向AppLovin靠拢。美国银⾏表示，本季度提供了⾸个财务验证，证明Runtime数据可以实质性地改善Vector的投放精准度，⽽⽬前仅有约30%的Unity 6游戏接⼊，且约75%的⼴告活动仍未使⽤D28 ROAS；因此，美国银⾏预计第三和第四季度Vector的环⽐增⻓均将超过20%，并将2027⽇历年的EBITDA预测从7.89亿美元上调⾄12.9亿美元。德意志银⾏表示，Vector超过90%的同⽐增⻓反映了可重复的模型改进周期，⽽⾮临时性⽀出；该⾏将2026/2027财年的收⼊预期分别上调了4%/11%，EBITDA预期上调了17%/36%，并认为营收持久性的提升加上⾮核⼼业务的剥离，使得2025-2028财年约50%的年度调整后EBITDA增⻓⽬标变得清晰可⻅。................ GOOGL: SemiAnalysis Says DeepMind Brain Drain Is aNear-Term GCP Bull Case as TPU Sales Drive ExplosiveGrowth... GOOGL：SemiAnalysis表示DeepMind的⼈才流失对GCP⽽⾔是短期利好，因为TPU销售正驱动爆发式增⻓.. SemiAnalysis argues DeepMind is no longer operating like a true frontier lab aftermajor leadership departures and weakening Gemini model momentum, but says thebiggest beneficiary is GCP as compute is increasingly redirected toward externalcustomers. SemiAnalysis estimates more than 20% of TPU shipments from 3Q26–4Q27 are being sold directly to Anthropic and says GCP could reach more than$73Bof third-party AI ARR plus roughly$120B of TPU system sales by end-2027........ SemiAnalysis estimates TPU system sales could push 2027 GCP growth into themid-100% range versus Street near 64%, add roughly$3 to Google EPS in 2027,and drive more than$250B of incremental TPU bookings into RPO... SemiAnalysis认为，在多位核⼼⾼管离职以及Gemini模型势头减弱后，DeepMind已不再像⼀个真正的尖端实验室，但其表示最⼤的受益者是GCP，因为计算资源正越来越多地转向外部客户。SemiAnalysis估计，在2026年第三季度⾄2027年第四季度期间，超过20%的TPU出货量将直接出售给Anthropic，并表示到2027年底，GCP的第三⽅AI年度经常性收⼊（ARR）可能超过730亿美元，外加约1200亿美元的TPU系统销售额。..... SemiAnalysis预计，TPU系统销售可能将2027年GCP的增⻓推⾼⾄150%左右的区间（相⽐之下，华尔街预期约为64%），为Google 2027年的每股收益（EPS）贡献约3美元，并为剩余履约义务（RPO）带来超过2500亿美元的新增TPU订单。..... GOOGL: Google’s AI shake-up boosts Brin as DeepMind’sHassabis steps aside GOOGL：Google的AI架构重组强化了布林的作⽤，DeepMind的哈萨⽐斯退居⼆线... The FTreports Google is shifting control of its AI effort from London back to SiliconValley, with Demis Hassabis stepping back from day-to-day leadership ofDeepMind and Gemini development moving under Koray Kavukcuoglu in MountainView, alongside a newly re-engaged Sergey Brin. The FT says the reorg reflects abroader shift from DeepMind’s research-first culture toward commercial urgency,as Google tries to close