国泰海通消费组专题报告：美国消费变迁启示录

01 03 04 3 1980 TJXCostco1970-1990 /CONTENTS 010203040506 ——GDP 01 ——GDP01 •GDPGDP20259 1978GDP1105631988GDP2213682012GDP5516452025GDP990012 —— 01 •19291929-19331939-1945197020082020 ——vs 01 •vs——1970202568.9% ——vs01 1930-19401950-1980202534.8%65.2% —— 02 •1946-1964760019461.4119641.9280900.5%-1% • ——02 •3015.3% •15-6460%-70% —— 02 •20242.5/19603.67/20241.17/70-80 •2.51/2.15/ ——02 •——198211995220256.68 • 02 —— •31.61 •52.2%•197419748.71%•13.68•22.6%••8.44•13.9%••4.94•8.2%••1.85•3.1%• ——02 •2025195Top10%0.1%+0.9%+9%60% •19892025Top10%8.664%40%6.830.8%50%5.3% ——02 02 —— •25.71 •16%-17%600-1000 •31.22•0.1% 1%15%-16% •67.86•35%-36% •60.01• 30%-31% •10.38• 2%-2.5% ——03 •19291970199018.7% ——03 •18%1930-19502%1965MedicareMedicaid6519609.2%18% ——03 19291970-1990198019902008 ——() 1930-195018%1960Costco19702022 —— •19291950-19701970+19802020 ——03 •1929194019501960-19801990Z —— •1950-19701950–19701956197019902000170020253.7% ——03 •3%1930-19401950-19701970 —— •1945Z —— •/19503-58-101970/90%/ ——vs04 • •198019902010200020082020 —— 04 •19932.51%202635.91%Costco199313.95%20268.54%199329.45%202627.93%20050.88%20264.69%199324.37%202611.9%199329.71%202611.03% —— 04 •1993330Costco27.6Ulta19.714.19.77.6 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 —— 04 19943.23%202617.73%→→199421.01%202648.14%1997199415.43%20263.36%199451.37%202625.83%1994100% —— 04 •1994722292TJX6729 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 vs05 •GDP vs 55ROE vs05 • ROE ——vs 05 •vs1990 •ROE —— 05 199330.11%202653.77%20262.21%19936.79%20263.78%199357.18%202639.52%19935.93%20260.72% —— 05 1993369.8A142.5114.524.3 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 —— 05 199332.12%202653.67%199311.88%202625%199318.19%20268.23%199322.54%20266.04% —— 05 •1994212.6A168.526.219 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 1978-1982 06 ROE 06 ROE 06 Costco THANKS FORLISTENING