冰岛：选定问题（英）

ICELAND SELECTED ISSUES ThisSelected IssuespaperonIcelandwas prepared by a staff team of the InternationalMonetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with themember country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed onJuly 10, 2026 Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. ICELAND SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByEuropeanDepartment Prepared ByAmit Kara, Harri Kemp(EUR),and YuriiSholomytskyi(ICD) CONTENTS INFLATION DYNAMICS AND KEY DRIVERS OF INFLATION________________________3 A.Introduction_________________________________________________________________________3B. Methodology________________________________________________________________________3C. Data__________________________________________________________________________________5D. Results_______________________________________________________________________________6E. Conclusions__________________________________________________________________________8 TABLES 1.Blanchard-Quah Long-Run Restrictions______________________________________________52. CPI Forecast Error Variance Decomposition at h = 8 Quarters________________________63. Structural Determinants of Inflation Dynamics:Cross Country Regression Results___8 References____________________________________________________________________________11 ANNEX I. CountryList_________________________________________________________________________10 DIAGNOSING ICELAND’S PRODUCTIVITY SLOWDOWN: FIRM-LEVEL EVIDENCE12 A. Introduction_______________________________________________________________________12B. Aggregate Backdrop_______________________________________________________________13C. Data and Measurement____________________________________________________________15D. Drivers of the Aggregate Productivity Slowdown: Firm-Level Evidence____________16E. Possible Implications_______________________________________________________________23F. Conclusion_________________________________________________________________________24 FIGURES 1. Growth Accounting and Labor Productivity________________________________________________132. GDP per Capita and Labor Productivity_____________________________________________________133. GEAD Productivity Decomposition_________________________________________________________144. Laggard-Frontier Productivity Catch-Up____________________________________________________175. Within-Sector Capital and Labor Misallocation_____________________________________________186. Within-Sector Allocative Efficiency_________________________________________________________197. Cross-Sector Allocative Efficiency__________________________________________________________198. Zombie Firms and Firm Transition__________________________________________________________209. Entrant Productivity Developments and Scaling Penalty____________________________________21 References____________________________________________________________________________________26 ANNEX I.TechnicalAnnex____________________________________________________________________________27 INFLATION DYNAMICS ANDKEY DRIVERS OFINFLATION1 A.Introduction 1.Conducting monetary policyin Icelandpresentsimportantchallenges.Since theinflation target was adopted in 2001, inflation has averaged 4.9 percent—nearly double the target.Even restricting attention to the more stable post-crisis period (2011–25), inflation averaged 4.0percent and exceeded the target inroughly two-thirds of the monthsover this period.Thecentralbank’s policy rate has averaged5percentsince2011with a maximum of9.25percent and aminimum of 0.75 percent.Despite this, inflation has proved stubbornly difficult tobringbacktotargetdurably,pointing to structural drivers that monetary policy alone has struggled to offset. 2.Iceland's inflation persistence reflects a combination of structural features.As a highlyopen, commodity-exportingeconomywith substantialservices exports, Icelandis inherentlyexposed to large external price shocks. But exposure alone does not explain persistence: many smallopen economies face similarly large shocks without the same inflationary consequences. Theliterature points to labor market institutions, sectoral composition, and the strength of monetarytransmission asimportantchannels—and Iceland sits at an extremehighendof the spectrumonunion density andnear the low end of the distribution for policy-rate pass-through. Understandingwhich of these channels dominates, and by how much, is essential for assessing the appropriatepolicy response. 3.This paperidentifiesthe sources of inflation in Iceland and themain structural factorsthatcould helpexplain its persistence.The analysis aims toaddresstwo related questions. First,what is driving Iceland