伊拉克：选定问题（英）2025
©2025International Monetary FundIRAQSELECTED ISSUES IRAQSELECTED ISSUESApprovedByMiddle East andCentral AsiaDepartmentUNLOCKING IRAQ'S ECONOMIC POTENTIAL: THE ROLE OF STRUCTURALREFORMS IN BOOSTING MEDIUM TERM NON-OIL GROWTH ____________________3A. Iraq’s Growth Remains Subdued. ___________________________________________________3B. Drivers of Iraq’s Growth Potential ___________________________________________________5C. Medium-term Growth Prospects Remain Unfavorable ______________________________9D. Lingering Structural Challenges Hold Back Growth _______________________________10E. Structural Reforms can Foster Iraq’s Medium-term Growth _______________________14F. Conclusions _______________________________________________________________________17BOX1. A Growth Accounting Exercise for Iraq ______________________________________________ 5FIGURES1. Real GDP Growth __________________________________________________________________32. Non-Oil GDP Per Capita, USD _____________________________________________________33. Female Labor Force Participation Rate and Youth Inactivity ______________________44. Real GDP Growth and Contributions, 2000-2023 _________________________________65. Employment Rate: Contributions to Growth, 2001-2022 _________________________76. Sectoral Productivity Growth, 2014-2021 __________________________________________ 87. TFP Trends and Contributions to Growth in Oil vs. Non-Oil Sectors _______________ 88. Oil vs. Non-Oil Investment Since 2014 ____________________________________________ 99. Actual and Projected Growth in Working-Age Population Shares, 2020-34 ______ 1010. Aggregate Structural Reform Index ______________________________________________ 1111. Structural Reforms and Non-Oil Productivity Growth in MENA _________________ 1112. Business and Labor Regulations, 2021 ___________________________________________ 12CONTENTS Prepared ByFilippo GoriandHela Mrabet 2INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND13. World Governance Indicators _____________________________________________________________ 1314. Credit to the Private Sector _______________________________________________________________ 1315. Average Effects of Structural Reforms ____________________________________________________ 1516. Impact on Growth and Employment 5 Years after the Reform ____________________________ 15References____________________________________________________________________________________ 18 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND3UNLOCKING IRAQ'S ECONOMIC POTENTIAL: THE ROLEOF STRUCTURAL REFORMS IN BOOSTING MEDIUMTERM NON-OIL GROWTHIraq’s non-oil economic growth has been slow, constrained by low productivity, limited investment andan inefficient use of human capital. Against the background of an excessive dependency on oil, anoutsized public sector footprint, a fragile political context, and lingering institutional and governanceshortfalls, non-oil medium term growth is expected to remain subdued, at 3-4 percent – mostly drivenby demographics. To unlock its potential for sustained growth and prepare the country for growingsocial challenges in the next decade, Iraq should commit to and implement an ambitious structuralreform agenda. Estimates suggest that a comprehensive reform package aimed at improvinggovernance, intensifying the fight against corruption, streamlining labor market and businessregulations, and strengthening the banking sector could improve growth by an additional 4 percentover the medium-term.A.Iraq’s Growth Remains Subdued1.Growth has slowed down significantly in thepast decade. Following the 2003 war, and despite aperiod of internal conflicts and sectarian violence -including the fight against ISIS - Iraq’s economic growthwas strong, supported by debt relief and largereconstruction efforts funded by international donors inthe early 2000s. Increased security conditions since 2018and the formation of a new coalition government in 2022contributed to a drastic improvement in stability. Yet, theresolution of domestic conflicts has so far failed totranslate into tangible growth improvements. Since 2018,on average growth has been almost flat, at 0.3 percent,largely trailing regional and international peers, includingother oil exporters in MENA (Figure 1).2.Lack of overall economic dynamism isassociated with low non-oil growth.Limited growthmomentum since 2018 is explained in part by relativelysubdued oil price growth - against a high reliance of thecountry on the extractive industry - in part by slow non-oil growth. Non-oil GDP grew on average only at 1.3percent between 2018 and 2023, against 1.8 percent forMENA and 1.6 percent for MENA excluding GulfCooperation Council (GCC) countries (a group that, 4INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDhowever, includes several low-income economies). Yet, Iraq's non-oil GDP per capita, at aboutUSD 2,700 in 2022, remains one of the lowest in the MENA region. This figure, similar to that ofother MENA ex-GCC countries, remains significantly below the overall MENA average of USD 9
