阿曼：选定问题（英）

OMAN SELECTED ISSUES This paperonOmanwas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund asbackground documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It isbased on the information available at the time it was completed onDecember 11, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. OMAN SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByMiddle East and CentralAsiaDepartment PreparedbyMohamed Belkhir, Takako Iwaki, and NaregMesrobian(all MCD). Esther George provided administrativeassistance. CONTENTS BEYOND OIL: ACCELERATING EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION FOR SUSTAINABLE A. Context______________________________________________________________________________2B. Oman’s Economic and Export Structure______________________________________________3C. Export Diversification: Modest Gains Despite Past Policy Efforts_____________________7D. Lessons from Korea, Singapore, and Malaysia on Export Diversification___________11E. Reforms as Catalysts for Export Diversification_____________________________________12F. Policies to Promote Export Diversification__________________________________________13 FIGURES 1. Oil Prices and Economic Performance in Oman______________________________________32. Indicators of Economic Diversification_______________________________________________43. Manufacturing Output and Economic Complexity____________________________________54. Additional Export Diversification Indicators__________________________________________65. Oman’s Quality of Infrastructure_____________________________________________________76. Governance Performance Index______________________________________________________87. Years vs. Outcome of Schooling______________________________________________________98. Restrictions on Exchange, Trade, and Transfers______________________________________99. Special Economic Zones in Oman__________________________________________________1010. Global Value Chains: Backward and Forward Participation________________________11 References____________________________________________________________________________16 ANNEX I. Structural Reforms and Nonhydrocarbon Exports: An Empirical Analysis___________17 BEYOND OIL: ACCELERATING EXPORTDIVERSIFICATION FOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH1 Since oilwasdiscoveredinthe1960s, Oman’s economy and living standards have improvedsignificantly. Yet, it has also created a vulnerable economic structure, with economic growth andexternal and fiscal balances being highly sensitive to oil price swings. While current diversificationefforts have laid important groundwork, further progress is needed to ensure economic resilience to oilprice volatility. Building a competitive nonhydrocarbon export sector is essential, as nonhydrocarbonoutput consistsprimarily of non-tradables, particularly of low-added value sectors requiring low-skilledlabor, with limited productivity gains, foreign currency receipts, and employment potential.Accelerating structural reforms alongside well-targeted state support will be key to enhance productsophistication and deepen export diversification beyond oil and gas.In particular,ourempiricalanalysis indicates that improvements in government effectiveness and logistics performance couldsignificantly raise nonhydrocarbon exports. A.Context 1.Oman is pursuing a comprehensive economic transformation anchored inOmanVision2040.The Visionaims to foster a competitive, diversified, and sustainable economy, underpinned byenhanced human capital and private sector development.Itenvisions a gradual shift away fromreliance on hydrocarbons by promoting nonhydrocarbon sectors,such as manufacturing, logistics,tourism, and renewable energy. To support this transition, the authorities are implementing wide-ranging structural reforms, including efforts to improve the business environment, strengthen fiscalsustainability, deepencapital markets, and upgrade education and workforce skills.TheVision alsoemphasizesgoodgovernance, environmental sustainability, and digital transformation as keyenablers of long-term growth.These reforms are intendedto enhanceeconomic resilience, createhigh-quality jobs for Oman’s citizens, and ensurefiscal and externalsustainability,amid growinguncertainty in globaloil markets. 2.Economic diversification is advancing but more remains to be done to strengthen theeconomy’s resilience to oil price volatility(Figure 1).Oman has particularly made progress inadvancing output diversification, with nonhydrocarbon activities now accounting fornearly70percent of total GDP.However, fiscal revenues remain heavily dependent on hydrocarbon receipts—accounting for around 80 percent of the totalrevenue—despite efforts to broaden the revenuebase.This leavesthe fiscal position highly sensitive to oil pri