赞比亚：选定问题（英）

ZAMBIA SELECTED ISSUES This paperonZambiawas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fundas background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country.Itis based on the information available at the time it was completed onJune 30, 2025. Copies ofthis report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. ZAMBIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByAfrican Department Prepared ByDaniel Gurara,Linda Spahia,with inputs fromBalazs Stadler and Ignatius Masilokwa and assistance fromSteven Qi and Suri Pan (all AFR) A. Introduction ___________________________________________________________________________3B. Firm Landscape ________________________________________________________________________5C. Constraints to Firm Growth ____________________________________________________________6D. New Firm Formation __________________________________________________________________10E. Conclusion and Policy Implications____________________________________________________13 BOXES 1. Good Practices to Support Formalization ______________________________________________ 62. Entrepreneurship Landscape in Zambia ________________________________________________ 9 FIGURES 1. Labor Productivity Growth: Within vs. Structural Reallocation __________________________ 42. Firm Structure and Employment Patterns ______________________________________________ 53. Access to Credit and Firm Performance ________________________________________________ 74. Formal Business Density: Zambia vs Comparators_____________________________________10 TABLES 1. Top Business Constraints Reported by Firms ___________________________________________ 62. Panel Fixed Effect Estimates Firm Growth ______________________________________________ 9 References_______________________________________________________________________________ 15 ZAMBIA: BUILDING RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE SHOCKS ______________________________16 A. Context _______________________________________________________________________________16B. Contribution to Global Emissions and Mitigation Commitments ______________________17C. Changes in Temperature and Rainfall Patterns ________________________________________19D. Impact of Natural Disasters ___________________________________________________________24E. Impact on Energy Generation _________________________________________________________27F. Strengthening Climate Adaptation for Long-Term Resilience _________________________28G. Conclusion____________________________________________________________________________33 BOXES 1. Zambia’s Climate Framework__________________________________________________________292. Climate Public Investment Management Assessment in Zambia ______________________32 FIGURES 1. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in SSA countries __________________________________________172. GHG Emission _________________________________________________________________________183. NDCTargets___________________________________________________________________________194. Climate Change Impact on Surface Temperatures_____________________________________215. Changes in Rainfall Patterns___________________________________________________________226. Disasters and People Affected ________________________________________________________247. Probabilistic Distribution ______________________________________________________________248. Maize Production and Yield ___________________________________________________________259. Impact in Maize Yields vs Historic With and Without Irrigation________________________2610. Access to electricity __________________________________________________________________2711. Forest and Land Area ________________________________________________________________2812. Environmental Expenditure __________________________________________________________2813. Climate-Driven Inform Risk in 2022 __________________________________________________3014. Design of Climate Public Investment Management Institutions ______________________31 References_______________________________________________________________________________ 35 FIRM GROWTH IN ZAMBIA Firm growth in Zambia remains subdued, undermining the country’s potential to create jobs, raiseproductivity, and drive economic transformation. Formal businesses face persistent barriers—mostnotably limited access to finance, unreliable electricity supply, and competition from a large informalsector. Using data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys and cross-country entrepreneurship benchmarks, this paperexamines how theseconstraints affect firmperformance and contributeto Zambia’s low rate of newbusiness formation.Empirical analysis indicatesthat firms with access tocredit and stableinfrastructure growsignificantly faster, whilethos