冰岛：选定问题

ICELAND SELECTED ISSUES This paperonIcelandwas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fundas background documentation for the2025consultation withIceland. It is based on theinformation available at the time it was completed onMay30, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. ICELAND Approved ByEuropean Department Prepared By Amit Kara (EUR) and Yurii Sholomytskyi (ICD) ASSESSING THE MONETARY POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGES IN OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSING COST MEASUREMENT: INSIGHTS FROM ICEQMOD ________ 2 A. Introduction _________________________________________________________________________ 2B. Overview of IceQMod _______________________________________________________________ 3C. How Would Inflation and Monetary Policy Have Differed if Imputed Rent hadAlways Been Estimated Using the “Rental Equivalence” Approach? ___________________ 3D. Conclusions _________________________________________________________________________ 7 ANNEX I. IceQMod Core Structure _____________________________________________________________ 9 References ____________________________________________________________________________ 13 ASSESSING THE MONETARY POLICY IMPLICATIONS OFCHANGES IN OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSING COSTMEASUREMENT: INSIGHTS FROM ICEQMOD A.Introduction significant challenges.Iceland is a small, advanced economy with a floating exchange rate and asignificant degree of trade openness. The CBI operates under an inflation-targeting framework, witha mandate to maintain inflation at a target rate of 2.5 percent. However, since the inflation targetwas set in 2001, inflation has averaged 4.9 percent. The large discrepancy between the target andrealized inflation underscores the challenges in formulating effective monetary policy in a shock-prone economy undergoing significant structural transformation. 2.We introduce a new Iceland-specific Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) called IceQMod.The QPM is one of the IMF's workhorse models for forecasting and policy analysis,especially monetary policy. QPM is a medium-sized semi-structural model that strikes a balancebetween the theoretical rigor of microfounded models and the practical necessity of datarepresentation. A model such as the QPM can significantly help the monetary policy process byquantifying the size and speed of policy rate adjustments in response to various economic shocks.Additionally, the rational expectations foundation of the model makes it robust to the Lucas critique;it is therefore a valuable tool for forecasting and conducting “what if” policy scenario analysis.IceQMod is calibrated to Icelandic data and tailored to capture the essential features of theeconomy. 3.We use the model to assess the implication of a change in the methodology forcalculating the cost of housing services received by homeowners in the CPI.The housingcomponent in the CPI includes three sub-components: (i) actual rent paid by renters; (ii) imputedrent which is measure of the housing services costs received by homeowners; and (iii) andmaintenance and repair of housing. The imputed rent subcomponent carries a hefty 20 percentweight in the CPI and can be measured in different ways. The original approach in Iceland was basedon the “user cost” approach which implicitly treats housing services as a return on an asset. Theimputed rent sub-component under this approach contributed an average 1.8 percentage point toheadline CPI inflation between 2001 and mid-2024, thus opening a large and persistent gapbetween headline CPI inflation and CPI inflation excluding housing. This sparked two relateddebates about (i) the most suitable inflation measure for defining the monetary policy inflationtarget; and (ii) the most suitable methodology for estimating the imputed rent subcomponent (IMF,2006; and Herbertsson and Mishkin, 2006, CBI, 2016, Task Force on Monetary Policy, 2018). It wasfinally decided to change the methodology for calculating imputed rent to the “rental equivalence”approach effective June 2024. This approach estimates the amount a homeowner would pay if they rented their property instead of owning it. We assess the implications of the change in themethodology for inflation, monetary policy and the broader economy using IceQMod in Section C. B.Overview of IceQMod 4.IceQMod is a semi-structural model gap model of the Icelandic economy.The short rundynamics of the model, underpinned by New Keynesian theory that incorporates sticky wages andprices, has been modified and extended to better represent specific characteristics of the Icelandiceconomy. The model can be represented in a state-space format, allowing the Kalman filteralgorithm to effectively break down key macroeconomic variables into gap and trend components.The model i