2026年第二季度业绩大幅不及预期

Laopu Gold (6181.HK)Severe missin2Q26 Laopu'spreliminary1H26results implied2Q26NPwasabout30%belowCiti andmarketexpectations.Thesevereearningsmisscamefrombothtoplineandmargin.Our 2026E-28E net profits,which are the seasonality-adjustedannualizationof2Q26,werelowered17-22%accordinglyonweakersalesandmargin assumptions.Wealso expect a significant cut in street numbers andhence negative sharepricereaction inthenearterm.Afterforecast reset,webelieveapotentiallysequentialsalesimprovementinSKPMall'sAugpromotiontobeare-ratingopportunity.BuywithlowerTPofHK$507. lowendoftheguidancerangeatRmb16.5bnandRmb3.6bn,respectively,weigheddownbyweaker-than-expected sales inMarch duetoa pullback ingoldprices.Thisimplies2Q26revenueofRmb3.3bn-3.95bn.DeductingSBCexpensesof>Rmb40m(all incurred in1Q26permgmt),reportedNPisprojectedtobeRmb4.26bn-4.31bnin1H26.Thisimplies2Q26reportedNPofRmb660m-710m,withNPMdownqoqto18%-20%from1Q26's21.8%.MgmtsaidthesequentialNPMcontractionin2Q26was driven by ahigher sales mix of discounted products,steeper discounting(including gold coin gifting promotions), a lower online sales mix, and operatingdeleverage. Inventory rose as of end-Jun 2026 compared to Dec 2025due toincreasedprocurementin2Q26,whileoperatingcashflowturnedpositivein1H26.2H26Eoutlook-Mgmtsaid2Qand3Qrepresentthelowseasoninthegoldjewelry industry,while1Q and 4Q are peak seasons,typicallygenerating sales~2x that ofthelow season(vs.industryaverageof1.5x).Suchseasonalityimplies2H26Esalescouldreach3xof2Q26level.Ontopofthat,mgmtexpectmoreattractiveproductpricingvia incremental discountandnewproducts carryinglowerpricepergramtostimulate sales. 2Q26 new products were limited to"test the waters"and, givenpositivecustomerfeedback,majorproduct rolloutsareplanned for2H26E.WeexpectGPMin2H26Etobelowerthan2Q26's>45%duetothesenewlaunches,which anchor43%GPM and additional5%discount fromtop-tiermembership,betteroperating leveragetooffsetlowerGPMin2H26Evs.2Q26 Earningsandvaluation-Wecut2026E-28ENP17-22%onlowerrevenueandmargin,expectingRmb6.4bn/5.1bn/5.9bnin26E/27E(normalizedearnings)/28EOurTPisloweredtoHKs507.0fromHK$659.0,basedonunchanged15x27EP/ETradingat11.7xP/Eand6.4%yieldin27E.valuationremainsundemandingtous Tiffany FengAC+852-2501-2759tiffany.feng@citi.com XiaopoWei,CFA+852-2501-2472xiaopo.wei@citi.com Brian Cho+852-2501-2712brian.cho@citi.com AddingDownside3O-DayShort-TermViewonLaopuGold(6181.HK) Within30 DaysEarnings Duration: Category: Laopu'spreliminary1H26results implied2Q26NPwasabout30%belowCiti&marketexpectation.Thesevereearningsmisscamefrombothtoplineandmargin.Weexpectasignificantcutinstreetnumbersandhencenegativesharepricereactioninthenearterm. Bull/Bear: Laopu Gold (6181.HK) Laopu Gold niche in“heritage gold,”combining modern designs and classic Chinesemotifs,featuring at leasttwo Chinesetraditional handmadegold craftingtechniques,oftenembeddingdiamondsand/orgemstones,withproductssold in elegant boutiques styled likea traditional Chinese scholar's study.Laopu's key strengths include high ticket size (>Rmb50k on average), leadingper-storesales(>Rmb50Om),uniquefixed-pricemodel, superiorprofitability,and exquisite craftsmanshipand product innovation in its“"heritage gold”niche. Investmentstrategy WerateLaopu Gold shares as Buy.As price-sensitive customers areleaving,webelieve Laopunowhas a higherproportionof loyal customers whocarelessaboutthepricepremium.Thus,weexpectfuturesalestohavelowercorrelationtogoldpricesandfurtherdownsideriskfromgoldpricedeclinetobe limited,which shouldimproveearnings predictability.Although thecustomer mix shift led to earnings hiccups in the short term, this islikely alreadypriced in,and webelieve itwarrants distinctbrand positioningwithmatching audience,providingamore robust,sustainablebusinesslongerterm,in ourview. Valuation Ourtargetpriceof HK$507isbasedon15x2027EP/E(normalizedearnings)vs.global luxurypeers22x2026EP/E.Weapply~30%valuationdiscountforLaopu'storeflectits shorterbrand historyand track record periodin theluxury industry.The implied12x2026EP/Eis at thelowend ofglobal luxurypeers. Risks Keydownsiderisksthatcouldimpedetheshares fromreachingourtargetprice include:1)gold price volatility;2)intense competition; 3)evolvingconsumertastes and preferences; 4) consumption trade-down amid China'ssofteconomy;and5)negativefreecashflowamid expansion. IfyouarevisuallyimpairedandwouldliketospeaktoaCitirepresentativeregardingthedetailsofthegraphicsinthisdocument,pleasecallUSA1-888-500-5008(TTY:711),fromoutsidetheUS+1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 ANALYSTCERTIFICATION Theresearchanalysts primarilyresponsibleforthepreparationand content ofthisresearchreportareeither (i)designatedanalystsaredesignated intheauthorblock,eachanalystiscertifyingwith respecttotheentireresearchreportotherthan withrespecttoaspecificissuerwhichareattributabletoanotherAC certifying analystidentified inthepricecharts orratinghistorytablesforthatissuershownbelow.Eachoftheseanalystscertify,withrespecttothesectionsofthereportforwhic