宁波拓普2026年第二季度不及预期：受材料成本上升、折旧高、汇兑损失影响

depreciation,FXlosses; PO to RMB60ReiterateRating:BUYIPO:60.00CNY/Price:47.43CNY2Q26net incomedown35%YoY/15%QoQ;GPMdeclined Tuopu2Q26revenuecameinat RMB7.6bn,up6%YoY/14%QoQ,inlinewithBofAe Grossmarginwas18.4%,down0.9ppt YoY/0.8pptQoQ,behindBofAe.2Q26OPEX ratiocame in at 10.0%, up 0.8ppt YoY/down0.3ppt QoQ.Tuopu's2Q26net income came in at RMB471mn, down35%YoY/15%QoQ,amiss vs BofAe dueto lower GPMand OPM.Excluding one-off items (mainly government subsidy), its 2Q26 net income came in atRMB434mn,down36%YoY/8% QoQ,draggedby FX losses (RMB48mn),elevateddepreciation due to new capacity, delayed cost pass-through of raw material priceincreases, mandatory social insurance payments (RMB50mn), pricing cut fromautomakers and related impairment losses on inventories (RMB4Omn).1H26segmentreview;humanoidrobotcomponentupdateTuopu's 1H26 revenue growth was driven by chassis systems (+14% YoY)and interior Key Changes components (+9%YoY),while automotiveelectronics,thermal management systems, and shock absorbers recorded low-single-digit growth. Robot actuators remained thefastest-growing segment, with revenue surging 83% YoY to RMB14mn.1H26 GPM werebroadly stable, with modest declines in automotive electronics, thermal management,chassis systems, and robot actuators largely offset by improvements in interiorcomponents and shock absorbers.By end-June 2026,Tuopu continued to make progressin robotics business, with linear actuators, rotary actuators,and dexterous hand motorsentering the small-batch delivery stage. Meanwhile, it is advancing mass-productioncapabilities for body structural parts, foot shock absorbers, and electronic skins.Lower2026/27/28EEPSby8%/10%/8%;P0toRMB60 Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 4021joey.z.yang@bofa.comMing Hsun Lee, CFA >>Research Analyst Factoring in2Q26resultsandlatestoutlook,wecut2026/27/28Erevenueby3%/5%/7%.Meanwhile, welower2026/27EGPMby0.1ppt/0.1pptto reflect rising Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)Fiona Liang >>Research Analyst material costs.Net-net,welower2026/27/28Eearnings by8%/10%/8%.WecutP0toRMB60 (RMB64 earlier),based on S0TP valuation (details inside).Despite the 2Q26results miss, we reiterate our Buy on Tuopu for solid earnings growth aided byexpanding EV customerbase/product lines,and humanoid robots to create a secondgrowth curve (we expect global humanoid robot shipments to post 127% CAGR in 2025-30E). Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)Jessie Lo >>Research Analyst Merill Lynch (Singapore) >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to'Other Important Disclosures' for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Refer to important disclosures on page 9 to 11.Analyst Certification on page 6.PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 6.13012947 GPM: gross profit marginEV: electric vehicleFX:foreignexchange "NingboiQprofileTuopu (A)Key Income Statement Data (Dec)2024A2025A Auto Parts Tuopu Group was founded in 1983 and it is one of the largest auto parts supplier in China today. Tuopu currentlyowns 9 different product lines: vibration control system,interior and exterior trim system, lightweight body, cabincomfort components, thermal management system,chassis system, air suspension system, intelligent drivingsystem, robotics. By end-2023, Tuopu has set up 5technology R&D centers, more than 50+ subsidiaries and70+ manufacturing plants around the world. We have a Buy on Tuopu and we like it for (1) its tier 0.5 one-stop solution model (content value per vehicle toexpand to RMB30k from RMB3k) attracting a diversified EVcustomer matrix, (2) its existing business to provide a solidfoundation for growth: vibration control, trimming.lightweight chassis, TMS,(3) new drivers: chassis-by-wirebusiness to enter a harvest period after years of R&D, whilerobotics/liquid cooling likely create a second growth curve. Stock Data Price to Book Value3.1x Key Metrics Expect Tuopu's netincome to decline by 10% YoY in 2026 Our new PO is RMB6O (vs RMB64 earlier), is based on SOTP valuation. Auto/EV components:we apply 21x P/E(unchanged)to 2H26-1H27E net profit fromauto/EV components. Our target PER of 21x is based on the stock's historical 5-yearaverage one-year forward PER. Humanoid robot components: we apply 50x P/E to its 2030E net profit fromhumanoid robot components. Our target PER of 5Ox P/E is supported by (1) globalhumanoid robot shipments topost127%CAGR in2025-30Eand53%CAGR in2030-35E; (2) other leading Chinese industrial companies, were trading at 50x (0.5-0.6x PEG)in the fast-growing stage. We discount 2030E implied value