泸州老窖2026年第二季度业绩不及预期，维持持有评级

Results China Alcohol&Tobacco 2Q miss: Destocking and competitionweigh, Maintain Hold Han Zhang Research Analyst+852-2203-5802 LaojiaoannouncedQ226results:revenueofRMB2,447mn(downby66%YoY)and netprofitofRMB631mn (downby79%)bothmissedmarket expectations. 1Hbaijiu sales volume decreasedby26%YoY in total amid industry downcycle,withmid-andhigh-endproductsdownby43%withotherbajiudown by 10%.1H ASP for mid-and high-end segment rose 6% YoY, whilethat for other baijiu products declined by 1%.Theworse-than-expected volumedeclineinmid-andhigh-endproducts was likelydriven by1)the company's activedestocking amidthe industrydowncycle,and2)intense competition pressure inGuojiao 1573'spricerange:whileLaojiaohasresistedpricecutsforGuojiao1573,peerproductslike classic Wuliangye and Moutai 1935 have started to lower prices tosupport volume. 2QGPM declined by 4ppt YoYto 84%, and 2Q sales tax rate was up by10ppt. 2Q SG&Aratio increasedby21pptYoY,withthe selling expense ratioup16ppt and the G&A ratio up6ppt under operating deleverage.Core EBITmarginwasdownby36pptaccordingly,withcoreEBITdown87%. Factoring incontractliabilitymovements,2Qadjustedsalesweredownby72%YoY (vs cashfromsellinggoodsdownby77%). Valuation:PTcuttoRMB86.90,maintainHold Wecut2026-28Enetprofitby24%onaveragetoreflectalonger-than-expectedindustry destocking cycleand intense industry competition pressure forLaojiao.OurDCF-basedPTisthuscuttoRMB86.90fromRMB110.00,implying16x2026EP/E. Laojiao's valuation is relatively demanding: despite a ~7% div yield in 2026E,thestockistradingat15x2026EP/E/ona6%EPSCAGRin2026-28E(vs.thebaijiupeer average at 17xP/Eon an8%EPS CAGR).MaintainHold. Forecasts and ratios Deutsche BankAG/HongKongIMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONSLOCATED INAPPENDIX1.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescovered in its research reports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhavea conflict of interest that could affectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should considerthisreport as only a singlefactor in making their investment decision.THE CONTENTMAYNOT BE DISTRIBUTEDIN THE PEOPLE"S REPUBLIC OFCHINA ("THEPRC")(EXCEPTINCOMPLIANCE WITHTHEAPPLICABLE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OFPRC),EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAU Alcohol& TobaccoLuzhou Laojiao Alcohol&TobaccoLuzhou Laojiao Risks: Upside risks include:1)a faster-than-expected economic recovery;2)easingcompetitive pressure within strong-flavour and sub-premium segments; and 3) Alcohol&TobaccoLuzhou Laojiao intensified competition; 2) worse-than-expected channel destocking; 3)a worse-than-expected macro downturn; 4)a rising consumption tax; 5)unfavorablegovernment policy restrictions; and 6)food safetyissues. Alcohol&TobaccoLuzhou Laojiao Reuters: 000568.SZ Luzhou Laojiao is one of China's leading strong-flavor baijiu producers. Its core products include Guojiao 1573, Jiaolingseries, Laojiao Tequ, Laojiao Touqu and Hey Guys. Cash Flow (CNYm)Cash flow from operations Balance Sheet (CNYm) Growth & Profitibility30 KeyCompanyMetrics Han Zhang+852 2203 5802han-a.zhang@db.com Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request itourqlobaAsidefromwithinthismportant risk and conflict dissurescanalsobefoundathttp ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyU.S.RegulatorsDisclosures marked withanasteriskmayalsobe requiredby at least one jurisdiction inadditiontotheUnited States.See ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-UsRegulatorsandExplanatoryNotes. ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-U.S.RegulatorsDisclosures marked with an asterisk may alsobe requiredby at least one jurisdiction in additionto the United States.See ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-UsRegulatorsandExplanatoryNotes. Fordisclosurespertainingtorecommendations orestimatesmadeonsecuritiesotherthantheprimarysubject ofthisresearch,pleaseseethemostrecentlypublished companyreportorvisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsarestronglyencouragedto reviewthis information before investing. AnalystCertification Theviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectthepersonalviewsoftheundersignedleadanalyst(s)aboutthesubjectissuer and the securities of the issuer.In addition,the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive anycompensationforprovidingaspecificrecommendationorviewinthisreport.HanZhang. Alcohol &TobaccoLuzhou Laojiao 1.Hold, Target Price Change CNY 154.00, Current PriceCNY 136.81 Han Zhang2.01/27/2025Hold, Target Price Change CNY 131.70, Current PriceCNY 115.55 Han Zhang3.05/15/2025Hold, Target Price Change CNY 127.90, Current PriceCNY 128.29 Han Zhang 09/01/2025Hold, Target Price Change CNY122.00,Current PriceCNY 135.85 Han Zhang5.10/30/2025Hold, Target Price Change CNY 110.80, Current PriceCNY 129.88 Han Zhang6.04/29/2026Hold, Target Price Change CNY 110.00, Current PriceCNY 101.73 Han Zhang Alcohol&TobaccoLuzhou Laojiao EquityRatingandDi