【粕类月报】成本端题材驱动显现，粕类价格冲高调整

【粕类月报20260731】成本端题材驱动显现，粕类价格冲高调整 1）美豆方面：国外方面，近期中国对美采购传闻叠加产区关键生长期来临，CBOT大豆价格偏强震荡。但进一步上行空间打开需关注天气题材发酵以及中国对 2）豆粕方面：国内近月大豆到港季节性供应压力持续显现，下游饲料养殖需求逐步进入旺季，豆粕基本面维持宽松，现货基差延续承压。盘面走势更多跟随成本端美豆变动。关注后续中国采购节奏及产区题材驱动。3）菜粕方面：加拿大菜籽关键生长期，天气影响逐步上升，7月欧盟菜籽单产预期继续小幅下滑，国际菜籽新作产量不确定性仍在，预计阶段性国际菜籽价 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明 间进入8月，美豆单产敏感性提高，结合未来两周降水减弱及气温升高，市场对于53高单产存在担忧，预计8月报告存在小幅下修预期。需求端，随着中国对美豆采购回暖，7月报告已上修出口预估至4517.8万吨，但相较于中美协议预期的2500万吨进口量预计仍存上调空间。压榨需求在生柴政策落地后维持较高预期，预计阶段 性上调空间不大。整休来看，美豆库存及库消比在产量兑现担忧以及出口需求改善预期下呈现收紧趋势，对于CBOT大豆价格重心支撑偏强，进一步上行空间关注后续出口增量 空间以及天气端升水表现。美豆供需平衡表 (百万蒲式耳) 报告年度2018/192019/202023/242024/252026/27026/27（2026/27同比变化月月）清景1）情景2种植面积（百万英87.381.285.485.485.45.17%（百万英80.484.44.98% 美豆优良率2026-07-27美豆产区降水异常情况美豆产区气温异常情况US Soybeans PrecipitationUS Soybeans Temperature 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明4 单产(吨库消比 252138.95543,18632,63230.69%32,632123,40017547,04035,900120,500140153,67174.88742.52745,42733,35737,40033,357128,50046,74249,84220,42914.39%39,80020,429139,500160,94481,65046,67549,87529,41929,419130,500160,45879,06350,76754,01727,3783.1220.57% 27,378162,000 46,15036,819154,5008 67192,186104,17054,40558,25529,7613.3518.32%47,400172,500166'203:18237,6883.7120.83%50,00050.00037.688224.488118.00069.60036.888 阿根廷大豆供需平衡表 (干吨)报告年收葵积期初库存产量进口量总供应量出口量压梓量国内消费量期末库存库消比公项)19,35027,06958,80067686,54543,26749,46727,15645.73%43,309 加拿大油菜籽供需平衡表年份收密雷积期初库存产量进口总供应压榨量频库消比 2,09119,59921,78511,0229,4216.56%9,2731,34221,45810822,90810,8489,2699,4242,6362.3113.00%10.2999.1202.6362.272.348,5961511,858.19 1888,84611,4122.1819,23923.6267.6006月8,700,47622,00015012.30013,0003,0262.5314.69%7月1,47623,62613,0002,4266月9,4003,02622,00015025,1768,20013,00013,8503,1262.3414.18% 豆期末库存大豆库存大豆折豆粕库存库销比 705.401226.401011.3030.00793.90824.2013.70735.6075.00798.00701.4095.4%798.001166.601012.9075.00795.10870.608.30758.10104.20823.70750.80%0°66823.701227.901033.00104.20810.900.30915.403.70803.70108.00906.00$19.20101.9%906.001286.80993.50108.00779.900.60888.503.70769.80115.00950.00860.80111.8%950.00948.20863.10115.00677.500.50793.003.20674.60115.30962.90871.20129.1%962.90810.70901.80115.30707.900.60823.803.40702.40118.00950.00863.80123.0% 71180833.707.10 $25.00657.100L'E88117.00693.703.90$14.606.20715.4093.00671.00619.7086.6%671.00597.60471.2000'6369.900.50463.403.9070.00630.00564.60144.9%630.00402.00832.7070.00653.601.20724.803.60655.3066.00500.00458.5070.0%847.80500.00692.00543.201.10610.307.00560.0043.40616.30527.2094.1%616.30686.300.60730.308.90683.40800.00666.0097.4%800.00073.8780.701.00819.703.00743.20900.00780.00105.0% 海关中国油菜籽月度进口量_总量2026-06-30海关菜粕月度进口量_总量2026-06-30 04-3005-3106-30 2025-10-312026-05-2