亚马逊2026年第二季度：微软2.0时代的再现

+1917344 8508mark.shmulik@bernsteinsg.com +1917344 8447deeksha.pandey@bernsteinsg.com +19173448546wenhuan.chang@bernsteinsg.com @AMZN Amazon 2Q26: A Microsoft 2.0 encore agowhenAmazongotpenalizedfortheir'moment intime'and'notonemodeltorulethemall'rhetoric.Afewquarterslater,and these comments were eitherprescient, lucky,orboth.AwSfinallysawthelong-awaitedgrowthinflection,shootingtothetopofthecloudwarsasA/Q/Qrevenuemimics Anthropic'smeteoricrise.Managementfocusedtheircomments onA/ROiC,aplaybook that worked wonders for that other Seattle-based giant. HelloAI AWS,the stageisyours.After MSFT's Azure growth raised AWS expectations,AWS blew through it delivering +37% Y/Y growth, for the fastest growth in 18 quarters. Anupdated Al revenue run-rate of $25B was upmeaningfully from $15B just a quarter ago,aswasa$25Bcustomchipsbusiness,upfrom$20Blastquarter.Marginshit39%aidedbyanenergy credit, though still expanded Q/Q excluding the charge. BuildingAlis expensive,butRoiCmathhelps.Managementofferedthecleanestcommentary around returns againstthis capexwhichwentup to $220Bfor 2026 withexpectations of elevatedspending into2028.Thecurrent spending mix hasa majorportionallocated to Data Center build outs,and when built, the spend further shifts to servers withshort pay-back periods. Today the company sees a 2-3 year payback on investment, and weexpect this could shrink further as spend shifts to servers. AcleanAmazonprint?Revenuegrowth of~20%to$200B+,stores updouble-digits,adsaccelerating to +26%, and operating income once again beating Street comfortably at ~$27.5B or ~14%. Grocery, same day, and Al search all contributing nicely. Finally it's nicewhen all the pieces cometogether. InvestmentImplications We see momentum trade incoming, hang on.Remain OP,PT$32o (+$5). One of Wall Street's famed mantras is the concept that a great stock pitch should be quick to explain and easyto understand... say during a short elevator ride. A bad pitch? It's long and takes a lot of explaining and defending and by that point, there areeasier ways to make money in this industry. business was half the sizebytheway-to37%.37% is a critical numberfor 2 reasons:(1)it's~9pptacceleration inQ/Q thatwas stuck at 3-4%perquarter forthepastyear-a much-needed visible acceleration in growth.And (2)it's the growth raterequiredtoputAwSatthetopformostamountofincrementalclouddollarsbroughtonlineacrossthehyperscalersthisquarter. Add in 39% operating margins, that were still up sequentially at 37%+ excluding a one-time~$600M credit in energycontract value changes, and a backlog numberthat now sits at $496B including the new Anthropic deal.And the only numberthat truly mattered this quarter delivered. was clear asmanagement sharedthat Al revenue run-ratepassed $25B+this quarter,upfrom$15Bjust a quarterago...theseare some Anthropic-like growthrates! The chip business also continuedtoprogress as Trainium continues to ramp reaching thesame $25B+ revenue run-rate inclusive of Graviton, up from $20B last quarter.Fullspeed ahead! The secondpartof the stockpitch here was theneed to get comfortable on the ROiC from all the elevated spending as thecompany is expected toremain in negativeFCFterritoryfor sometime and management commentary pointedat elevatedinvestmentlevels through2028atleastwith2026Capexcomingup~$20Bto$220Btiedtomemorycostinflation.Recall lastyear Amazon announced their intentions to double their overallcapacitybythe end of 2027from 2025levels.This kicked off amajor data center build out project, which skewed heaviertowards the data center shells that don't yet monetize and amortizeover~3O years.Asthe capacity comes online,the spending shifts heaviertowards servers and compute equipment whichmonetizes right awayas the capacity is stood upwithmanagementcalling out commitsthrough 2027and most of 2028 in thebooks.Most importantly,Amazonisseeinga2-3yearpaybackperiodonserversthatarecontractedfor5-6years.And We can certainly rattle on about how theretail business also continues to look strong-the rarequarterwhereboth the AwsandRetailbusiness over-deliveredonexpectations-butthis simplytook aback seattothe AwS referendum.Revenuesgrew 20%Y/Y,aided bythat AwS beat but supported by a shift in a successful Prime Day and associated advertising growthacceleration to 26%partiallytied to that Prime Day event.Grocery continues to look strong as the companyscales up same-day delivery, while Alexa+ also appears to be scaling nicely driving higher conversion rates and a great place for advertisers toseeROAS.Operating margins once again delivered abovethetop end of guidance at $27.5B.Revenue guidance of 9-12%may$22.5-26.5B once again offers upside as folks coalesce around the top end of the range. So what to do with the stock here? The pitch is unchanged, we've just finally got the numbers to back it up. The Al enterprisewars were always amarathonnota sprint, and nowthat Amazon has taken overatthefront ofthepack,we don't expect themto relinquish the lead. Hopef