Illumina 2026年第二季度财报分析：临床浪潮中的发展机遇

EveBurstein+1917344 8313eve.burstein@bernsteinsg.comLouisa Qiu Rating +1 917344 8495louisa.qiu@bernsteinsg.comSpecialist Sales Market-PerformPrice Target Christian Moore +1 917344 8555christian.moore@bernsteinsg.com Illumina 2Q26: Ride the (clinical) wave 4%aboveconsensusof$1,110,andEPSof$1.31was7%aboveconsensusof$1.23.ThecompanyraisedFY26revenueguidanceto$4.60B-$4.64B(from$4.52B-$4.62B),ROWorganicgrowth to5+% (from2%-4%)and EPS~13cents at themidpoint. NovaSeqXplacementswerewithoutadoubtthestandoutinthequarter;the>95placementswereanicesequentialstep-upfrom83inQ1.Notably,70%oftheseplacementswentto clinicalcustomers (althoughwe wouldn'thave expected too manyplacements intothe research setting in this funding environment). It is easy to imagine that many of thesepurchases went to diagnostics players expecting to meaningfully ramp up existing tests (e.g.,like Guardant ramping up Shield and Reveal).However,it is also easyto imagine that someof them wentto clinical R&D-which isperhaps a sign of customers recommittingtollluminaafter having had time to consider pricing and performance from the other major new entrantsoutthere. The clinical consumable cliff has turned into a...wavetobe surfed?Previously,therewas a concern that when clinical customers switched fromthe 6000to theXthey wouldquickly start to pay less per sample, but they wouldn't ramp up volumes accordingly andrevenue would hit a“cliff" However, more and more of the clinical transition is now behindus: in Q2 the X was 79% of high throughput Gb shipped and 59% of high throughput>20% in the U.S...though bears may pick at the fact that growth was +20% ROW in Q1)this risk continues to be less and less compelling.CEo Jacob Thaysen opined,"it's not a cliff.It's a wave. And we are surfing it." InvestmentImplications We come out of this earnings print much more positive than we went in.However,the marketwasmuchmorepositivegoing inthan we were (stockup16.6%overthelastmonthand5.3%on the day),so it'spossiblewe won't seetoomuch ofa reaction (down 1% in theafter-market).We maintain our Market-Performrating.Weraise ourPTto$215based on raisingourestimates,and raising ourmultiplesto the current 2026levels(EV/EBITDAincreasefrom22xto25x2027,P/Eincreasedfrom34to40x2027).WACCof9.25%andaterminalgrowth of 3% remain unchanged. Models: Company model for ILMN See belowfora comparison of llumina's 2Q results vs.consensus and Bernstein estimates (Exhibit 1),aswell as results vs.2Q guidance (Exhibit 2) EXHIBIT 2:ILMN quarterlyresults vs.guidance GUIDANCE Illumina raised its guidance forFY26; thekey metrics are in Exhibit 3 for FY26 and in Exhibit 4 for 3Q26, with additional notesbelow. placements,whichare expectedtoremainelevated in2H26butwerealreadyelevatedbeginning in2H25. .3Q26is expectedtoreflectusual seasonality,with4Q26remainingthecompany'slargestquarteroftheyear. Theextrasellingweek in4Q26isexpectedtoaddapproximately50bpstoFY26revenuegrowth,primarilythroughconsumables FY26&Beyond .Clinical sequencing consumablesgrowth is expectedtobemid-teens,whileResearch&Applied consumables areexpected to decline mid- to high-single digits in FY26RecentNovaSeqXplacementoutperformanceisexpectedtoprovideamodestFY26consumablesrevenuebenefitwithmost of thebenefitcoming inFY27as clinical customerstypically require atleast sixto ninemonths to reachnormalized consumables pull-through.Continues to targethigh-single-digitrevenuegrowth inFY27,including 1to 2percentagepointsfromnewproducts. COMMENTARYFROMTHECALL&CALLBACK SEQUENCINGRESULTS .Placedover95NovaSeqXinstruments,supportedbyseveralmulti-unitcapacityexpansionordersfromlargeclinicalcustomers, including orders related to new clinical trials.In the call back,management suggested theydidn't see pull forwardof instrument orders. .Approximately70%ofNovaSeqXplacementswereclinicaland30%wereresearch.Inthecall back,managementnotedthatmostXresearchplacementsareincremental (vs.upgradesfromthe6oo0)since thetransition is largelycomplete.Approximately 5o%of clinical placements are incremental (vs.upgrades fromthe 6000), with reimbursement, new trials, and capacity expansion driving demand. tests are more likely toremain on NovaSeq 6000 during replacement activity,while newtests are more likelytobegin onNovaSeqX.Sequencingconsumables grew5%YoY,primarilydrivenbyhigh-throughput volumeas theNovaSeqXinstalledbase expanded and pull-through increased..Clinicalconsumablesgrew15% ex-China, including growth above 20%inU.S.-Canada,and represented approximately65%ofsequencingconsumablesrevenue.TheMiddleEastandLATAMweaknesscontributedtotheslowdown to 15% growth ex-China in 2Q, vs.20% in Q1. remains too early to call an end-market recovery. approximately78%of clinical volume on the platform.Clinical volume conversion remains expected to reach 80%to85%byyear-end 2026. beginning to drive momentum; rare disease, screening, and NiPT also continued to grow. Low-throughputdemandremained strong,supported byMiSeqi100,whilemid-throughputdemandremai