Verizon 2026年第二季度：一份干净的财报打印，是否可持续？

+1917 344 8502laurent.yoon@bernsteinsg.com +1917344 8564martin.boruchowicz@bernsteinsg.com Market-PerformPrice Target +1917 344 8302andrew.chung@bernsteinsg.com vz Verizon 2Q26: A clean print. Is it durable? and EPS, whileraisingfull-year EPS and FCFguidance.Idon'trecall the lasttime VerizonFive key takeaways. Disciplined growth is working. It almost sounds like an oxymoron in Telecom. By focusingon retention and lowering churn, Verizon delivered 184K PPPNA (vs.-9Kin 2Q25), whilereducing device subsides,and customeracquisition/retention costs.The strategy is workingso far, with PPPNA tracking toward 1M in 2026. Fiber up, FWA down.BB is BB?FWA net adds were softer, but Fiber exceededexpectations.Fiber net adds accelerated to 155K while FWA slowed to<200K,resulting ina healthy 348K total BB net adds.Verizon has~60% of BB subs alsotaking wireless service,contributing to ARPA stability/growth and lower churn. Similar to AT&T's approach, thebalanced Fiber/FWA strategy continues to work. Thumbs up on guidance, Verizon is not hiding behind conservatism. Build on 1Hmomentum,management raised EPS andFCFgrowthguidancewhilenarrowingPPPNAwireless and BBservices revenuegrowthof~4%,implyingfurtheracceleration ahead. MVNO? NO.To.LEo. Verizon echoed the stance taken by AT&T and T-Mobile, Also, Verizonaround Starlink (covered by Harned) gaining indirect access to wholesale relationships.Continues on the following page... InvestmentImplications We maintain our Market-Perform rating for VZ with a PT of $47 (+$3). EPS estimates movehigher across FY26 and FY27-driven by better than previously expected servicerevenuegrowth, EBITDA margins, and free cash flow growth, along with an increased buyback,consistentwithmanagement's2Q26guidanceraise. connectedenterpriselocations.However,thenotionofretrofittingcentralofficesintoinference-edgedatacentersfeelsreminiscentof priorcloudandmobile-edgecomputenarratives.Theopportunitymaybethere,andmanagement's anecdotesareencouraging,butitremainsverymuchashow-mestoryfornow. continueimproving retentionwhiletargetingunderpenetrated,lower-value segmentsas competitorsrampmarketing spend?AndwhenwillStarlink-relatedconcernsfadeenoughtoremovethevaluationceiling?WeareencouragedbyVerizon'smomentumandremainconstructive,but sectorupside could be limitednear-term. Thematic 13 Jul 2026-US Telecom: Adjusting price targets reflecting Starlink risks30 Jun 2026-Comcast (CMCSA):The Optionality Spin26 May 2026-Charter (CHTR): Fundamentals under pressure, balance sheet holds the line22 May 2026-AT&T launches a new plan for the value segment29 Apr 2026 - T-Mobile's fiber march - JV by JV22 Apr 2026 - T-Mobile (TMUS): Amarriage for the upside... but for whom?10Apr2026-USTelecom:CableBBsubscriberlosses in2026-downsideriskpersists19 Dec 2025 - US Telecom: Future of Broadband (Part V) - Satellite BB - led by Starlink - will be a bigger part of the ecosystem18Nov2025-USTelecom:FutureofBroadband (PartIV)-ProductizingBBbeyondcheapandfast15Oct 2025-US Telecom:Future of Broadband (Part Ill) -Could T, VZ, and TMUS achieve their fiber goals?Not without someifs andbuts3 Oct 2025 -US Telecom: Future of Broadband (Part Il)-Lessons from Global Markets on Industry Structure2Oct2025-USTelecom:Future of Broadband (Part I)-Transitioningto aNewOligopolistic Equilibrium Industryupdates 14 Jul 2026 -US Telecom: Competitive Intensity Update (2Q26)-Everyone's Got a Plan11 May 2026 - US Telecom: 1Q26 Update - Growth Through the Fog Earnings 23 Jul 2026-Comcast (CMCSA)2Q26:Amixed bag, little relief23 Jul 2026-T-Mobile (TMUS) 2Q26: Trading up, trading dow..22Jul2026-AT&T2Q26:What's notto like?28Apr 2026-Verizon 1Q26:Growth witha safety net with consumer postpaid phone churn of 84 basis points improving sequentially forthe second consecutive quarter-a sixbasismodel.Management attributed the improvement to the same structural shift flagged last quarter: eliminating price increaseswithout corresponding value-add, alongside continued reduction in customerfriction. Wireless service revenue declined0.7% YoY to $20.8B,an improvement from the 1.0% decline in 1Q26, withmanagementcontinuing to cite elevated promotional amortization as theprimarydrag on ARPA.Management reiteratedthatpromotionalamortization headwinds havenow peaked and willflip to tailwinds as Verizon's reduced reliance on device subsidies flowsthrough the schedule over the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.Equipment revenue declined 19.7% YoY, reflecting materiallylower upgrade rates consistent with customers holding devices longer and Verizon's deliberate step-back from devicesubsidies Broadband performance continuedto reflectthefulleffect oftheFrontieracquisition,withtotalbroadband net additionsadds, down 30.6% YoY.As in 1Q26, management characterized the FWA deceleration as deliberate, reflecting a continuedconscious mix-shifttowardfiber as Frontier markets come online.Total broadband connections reached 17.1million, with58% of broadband customers also taking mobi