中国消费者2026年第二季度脉搏报告：弱势消费背景下的高端韧性

China Consumer Pulse 2Q26: Premium resilience against apersistent weak consumer backdrop Overall consumption remained under pressure in Q2despite some improvement in confidenceand inflation indicators, and we continued to see relative outperformance inpremium acrosssectors. In this comprehensive quarterly tracker, we analyze key metrics across consumersectors including Apparel, Sportswear, Alcohol, Beauty, Travel, Luxury and Autos, spanningboth mass and premium categories. We also cover the implications for Japanese Consumercompanies. Euan McLeish+81 3 5962 9611euan.mcleish@bernsteinsg.com Aneesha Sherman+1 917 344 8457aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.com GDP growth moderated to 4.3% YoY in Q2from 5.0% in Q1, with retail sales slowingto +0.2% YoY despite Consumer confidence indicators gradually improving vs late 2025levels, and positive CPI (c.1%) helping to ease concerns around outright deflation. Premiumand Luxury segments were a relative bright spot, with Premium Beverages recovering,Apparel, Sportswear and Beauty brands outperforming mass-market peers, and LuxuryHotels continuing to outperform. Meanwhile, big ticket goods and autos remained weak, andwe remain cautious for the H2 outlook. Richard J. Clarke, FCA+44 20 7676 6850richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com Maria Meita+44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com Beverages:Moutai’s Fetien wholesale pricing continued to rise in Q2, with a second ex-factory price increase this year indicating that demand remains solid. Fetien pricing is now+13% from the trough, and other high-end variants are now +17-30%. In Beer, overall sell-out value improved materially, up 2% in the quarter compared to -1% in Q1, and momentumin restaurants was particularly healthy at +2%, while the off-trade strengthened sequentiallyto +1%. Moutai remains our top Pick in China Beverages, followed by Nongfu Spring. Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Callum Elliott, CFA, ACA+44 20 7676 7183callum.elliott@bernsteinsg.com Apparel and Sportswearcontinued to outperform broader retail, driven by online. 3P Onlinesales grew 10% in Q2 (vs. 2% for online retail overall), whereas Offline trends remain muted(-3% Pou Sheng, -1% offline retail overall).Nike is seeing positive marketplace sell-through (+3%),an improvement vs. prior quarters, as new product resonates and inventoryclears; however, we expect total growth to remain negative due to sharp reductions in sell-inover the coming Qs.Adidasis growing rapidly (+32%) and gaining share with strong productand brand resonance.Lululemonis seeing marketplace declines (-MSD%) from the recentPFAS controversy which should normalize soon, while emerging brands grow double digits. Yugo Shima+81 3 6777 6994yugo.shima@bernsteinsg.com Hao Wang, CFA+852 2123 2627hao.wang@bernsteinsg.com Hotels:Chinese hotel RevPAR continued its recovery in 2Q26, with demand growth drivingstrong performance. RevPAR growth was particularly strong at the extremes of the market- Luxury and Economy, while other segments continued to struggle. Given the resilienceof the performance in Luxury, and with slowing supply growth, we expect the recoveryto continue into H2 absent of incremental macroeconomic headwinds. IHG has the mostmeaningful China exposure of our asset light hotel names under coverage. However,China’s 3-year underperformance means the country is now a smaller component of feerevenues, softening the impact of recent strength. Mufei Gao+81 3 6777 6995mufei.gao@bernsteinsg.com Makoto Morozumi+81 3 6777 6972makoto.morozumi@bernsteinsg.com [Continues on next page...] [Continued from first page...] Luxury Goods: China luxury demand is stabilising but not yet reaccelerating, withvalue-consciousness and ongoing K-shaped polarisation remaining the definingfeatures of the market.While most companies that have reported so far showed stableor improving trends, there is still little evidence of a broad-based recovery, with strengthconcentrated in specific categories (most notably jewellery), higher-income consumercohorts, and a handful of brand-specific turnarounds such as Burberry. Chinese consumerscontinue to optimise bothwhereandwhatthey buy, arbitraging across Mainland China,Hong Kong, Japan and Korea based on FX dynamics and relative pricing advantages, whilegravitating towards products that offer stronger perceived value, craftsmanship, exclusivityand scarcity. This behaviour continues to support the outperformance of jewellery relativeto soft luxury and helps explain the divergent impact of Chinese tourism on brands andregions. At the same time, demand remains skewed towards affluent consumers, withelevated products, bespoke offerings and high-ticket purchases outperforming broaderluxury spending (e.g, Zegna), while aspirational demand remains selective and subdued. Autos:China auto sales came in weak in 2Q26, weighed down by the expiration of trade-insubsidies nationwide and a high comparison