中国消费者：2025年第四季度中国消费者脉搏：在2026年不确定性来临前，高端市场持续展现韧性

China Consumer Pulse 4Q25: Premium segments continue toexhibit resilience ahead of an uncertain 2026 Chinese consumer health continued to weaken in Q4, but premium segmentsremained resilient.In our comprehensive quarterly tracker, we analyze key metrics acrossmultiple consumer sectors - from Alcohol, Apparel, and Beauty to Travel, Luxury Goods,and Autos - encompassing both mass and premium segments. In Q4, we saw a furtherweakening of the Chinese consumer with signs that the slowdown in other areas of theeconomy are now spreading to consumer sectors. Despite this, luxury segments showedsigns of resilience and occasionally strength with the luxury watch market stabilizing, luxuryhotels continuing to grow RevPAR in the MSD and luxury beauty brands outperformingmass-market alternatives. As we now look forward to 2026, further weakness in thebroader Chinese economy is likely to have an outsized impact on consumer sectors as wagegrowth and job creation come under pressure. Richard J. Clarke, FCA+44 20 7676 6850richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com Aneesha Sherman+1 917 344 8457aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.com Euan McLeish+81 3 5962 9611euan.mcleish@bernsteinsg.com Melinda Hu+852 2123 2643melinda.hu@bernsteinsg.com China’s economy closed 2025 with slowing retail sales growth, falling propertyprices and a deepening capex recession. China’s GDP growth slowed to 4.5% YoYin Q4 with retail sales, which accounts for 40% of GDP, growing just 1.7%. Fixed AssetInvestment started to take a turn down in mid-2025 due to a variety of structural factorswhich are expected to persist into 2026 whilst the slowdown in retail sales in 2H25 hasbeen driven by a lapping of the expansion in consumer goods trade-in programs and autopurchase subsidies being lowered. The property market has continued to struggle, withsale prices in new-build and second-hand property declining y/y since 1H24. Overall, retailspending is at risk from a pullback in capex in 2026, which could take a toll on employment,aggravate property price declines, and further weigh on consumer confidence. Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com Maria Meita+44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com China Hotels:Chinese hotel RevPAR showed promising signs of recovery in 25Q4 havingsuffered y/y declines since 1H24. RevPAR grew y/y in all three months of the quarterwith improvements driven by the extremes of the chain scale, Luxury and Economy. Othersegments also showed signs of recovery with the Midscale - Upscale segments improvingfrom HSD to LSD declines. Despite the recent recovery, we do not expect a significantrebound. With pressure on China RevPAR from soft demand and excess-supply, butwith softer comps, we expect LSD growth as our base case for 2026. IHG has the mostmeaningful China exposure of our asset light hotel names under coverage. China’s 3-year underperformance means the country is now a smaller component of fee revenues,softening the impact of weakness, but any slowdown in the development environment willlikely be a headwind to NUG for all of our coverage. Callum Elliott, CFA, ACA+44 20 7676 7183callum.elliott@bernsteinsg.com Niall Mitchelson+44 20 7676 7144niall.mitchelson@bernsteinsg.com Lasith Siriwardana+44 20 7550 2191lasith.siriwardana@bernsteinsg.com Jessica Tian+1 917 344 8413jessica.tian@bernsteinsg.com China's Apparel and Sportswear marketdecelerated in Q4, with 3P online salesdeclining 1% and offline continuing to shrink due to Nike’s heavy clearance (withPou Sheng reporting -5% in Q4) which we expect to continue another quarter beforedissipating. On the other hand, other Western brands are growing, with Adidas, Lululemon,On and Hoka all outperforming the Sportswear market overall. On 3P online platforms,domestic niche / premium brands generally outperformed in H2, while market leadingbrand Anta declined in Q4. Jed Hodulik+1 917 344 8594jed.hodulik@bernsteinsg.com Kai Zhang+852 2123 2665kai.zhang@bernsteinsg.com [Continues on next page...] [Continued from first page...] China Premium Beverages:Ultra Premium Baijiu Prices continued to slide over Q4 butFetien’s wholesale prices started to rebound from late December after Moutai unveilingtheir new commercial strategy. Moutai’s strategy of pivoting to the i-Moutai channel is amajor positive step in increasing their share of the Fetien value chain, rebalancing supplyand enhancing their control over Fetien distribution. Restaurant App usage started torebound late in the quarter, and beer value growth closed out the year broadly flat YoY afterQ4 industry growth accelerated to +0.7%, according to BigOne Lab data. Going into 2026,however, we expect January to look very poor on the back of tough comps (Jan 2025 +17%yoy) and a late Chinese NY (+19 days vs 2025), followed by a strong February for the samereasons. (see: Beer Monthly). China's home appliance sector:In 4Q25 China’s AC and broader appliance backdropdeteriorates mater