高盛能源公用事业与矿业脉搏近一月主题回调背景下电力领域的七大核心争论2026071724页

This week, we have seen sentiment turn more cautious on the AI/power theme amidconcerns about relative valuation and a breakdown of the momentum factor (the GSPower Up America Basket (“GSENEPOW”) was down 9% in the past month). We askour senior team to weigh in on where they see value in power-exposed equities, andwhere they would be more cautious. For those looking for power exposure with adefensive tilt, we highlightXEL,DUK, andWMBamong regulated utilities and gasmidstream. For those seeking more pro-cyclical exposure to the power theme, wehighlight into earnings:TLN,AGX, andCCJ. Neil Mehta+1(212)357-4042|neil.mehta@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC Brian Lee, CFA+1(917)343-3110|brian.k.lee@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC John Mackay+1(212)357-5379|john.mackay@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC Carly Davenport+1(212)357-1914|carly.davenport@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC Here are the seven debates our senior analysts discussed: Ati Modak+1(212)902-9365|ati.modak@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC Among regulated utilities, where can you gain exposure to the power demandtheme with less volatility and more defense? Nick Cash+1(212)357-6372|nick.cash@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC We continue to see value in select regulated utilities, where our regulated coveragehas outperformed the S&P500 by 1% YTD. We believe the better clarity on regulatedreturns and solid support on capital investment plans even excluding AIdevelopment plans will be supportive of EPS growth and equity performance forstocks like Buy ratedSRE,XEL, andDUK. For SRE, we see an improved regulatoryenvironment in Texas and a solid growth story there where Oncor’s $48bn capitalplan has $9bn of incremental opportunities that are anchored to Permian reliabilityprojects and transmission upgrades and any data center demand would beincremental. For XEL, we have been encouraged by the company’s ability to derisk itsregulatory calendar this year and continue to gain line of sight into its identified$10bn+ of incremental capex, which support close to 10% EPS growth through2030. Lastly, for DUK we see upcoming catalysts including regulatory updates on itsNorth Carolina rate cases, and potential incremental conversions of large loadpipeline into ESAs that could support stronger EPS growth going forward. Alexa Petrick+1(917)343-9472|alexa.petrick@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC Olivia Foster+1(801)212-7314|olivia.foster@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC Brian Singer, CFA+1(212)902-8259|brian.singer@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC Why do we favor Gas Midstream over Gas E&P to express our power thesis? We continue to expect E&Ps to play an integral role in the long-term natural gasdemand growth thematic given the depth and quality of natural gas inventories inNorth America and low breakevens across the major gas producers. That said,against this backdrop, our natural gas E&P equity coverage has underperformedyear-to-date in 2026, as benchmark natural gas pricing has faced pressure from thestronger than expected Permian associated gas supply growth. Thus, while weremain constructive on the natural gas demand growth outlook, we acknowledge thepotential for low-cost gas supply to limit natural gas benchmark outperformance, Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that thefirm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg ACcertification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go towww.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as researchanalysts with FINRA in the U.S. and we highlight our preference for gas midstream infrastructure. From a midstreamperspective, natural gas demand growth remains the most visible and durable thematicfor the sector. For context, the key drivers remain: 1) higher LNG demand, as newcapacity coming online through the back of the decade should add 11 bcf/d moredemand, or nearly ~60% upside to current US LNG export levels of 19 bcf/d, and 2)incremental power demand, where our gas supply/demand analysis illustrates tailwindsfrom data center demand (7-8 bcf/d) and coal plant retirements (3 bcf/d) - bothrelatively material vs. current US power demand of ~35 bcf/d. For midstreaminfrastructure, this uptick in natural gas demand growth has come at a point whenexisting pipeline capacity is largely full, supporting our view that demand growth willrequire expansions on existing systems and/or new gas pipeline capacity additions.Beneficiaries in our midstream coverage includeWMB, KMI, DTM, TRP, and ET, amongothers, and we expect updates on the next gas transmission projects to remain a focus inthe coming quarters. What has been recent investor reaction to Behind the Meter announcements atWilliams and Baker Hughes? Is it better to be an equipment supp