日本化学品：十家海外公司业绩启示

Implicationsfromresults at10 overseas companies626 We believe an understanding of trends in downstream industries is important for Zinc1.7% considering demand trends in the upstream chemicals industry.Weprovide anoverview by sector of nine overseas companies thathave reported result through164 companies expect strong demand to continue for several years.We see positiveimplicationsforsemiconductormaterialcompanies Datacenters(csPs)Alphabetisexpanding capexfurther.However,wenotepressure on free cash flowfrom aggressive investment.We seepositivenear-termimplicationsforsemiconductormaterial companies,mainlyAl-relatedcompaniessuchasNittoboandJXAdvancedMetals Housing(Us)-UShousingdemandremainsweak.Wethinkimplicationsarein linewithexpectationsforShin-EtsuChemicalandNipponPaintHoldings(AOC) Lifesciences-WethinkhealthyCDMOdemandfrombothmajor pharmaceuticalmakers and midsize biotech companies is reassuring for companies that provideCDMOservices,includingAGCandNittoDenko. Paint-Asitappearsthatcompaniesarepassingthroughhighercostsandpricingstrategies havenot dampeneddemand,wethink results were reassuringforKansaiPaint and Nippon Paint Holdings.However,wetake note atNippon Paintthat theChinesemarketappearsweak. Micron expectssupplyshortagestocontinuefrom2027.Multi-yearstrategiccustomeragreementsincludefloorprices andtake-or-pay clausesthat increaseearnings stability. fromsemiconductormakersisextremelystrong,mainlyforadvancedlogicandDRAM.ASMLraisedfull-yearsalesguidancefrom36bn-4Obnto43bn-45bn.ItplanstoincreaselowNAEUVproductioncapacityby30%inboth2027and2028(outlookfor65unitsin2026,85unitsin2027,and110unitsin2028).HighNAEUVisalsofavorable,withIntel18Aadoptionprogressing. TSMC(July16):Salesgrew12%fromJan-MartoApr-Jun (USDbasis).Al-relateddemandisextremelystrong,andTSMCforecastssalestorise12%fromApr-Juntoatend-Marchto87daysatend-Junetoprepareforthe2nmlaunch. Intel (July23):Salesgrew19%fromJan-MartoApr-Jun.Clientcomputinggroup(PC)salesgrew15%,outpacingguidancedespitecomponentconstraints.DatacenterandAlsalesgrew24%,wellaboveguidanceonstrongdemandfromhyperscalers.Intel7and Intel18Avolumeexceededinternalcompanytargetsonhigherwaferinputvolumeand improvedyields. andcompaniesexpectstrongdemandtocontinueforseveralyears.Weseepositiveimplicationsforsemiconductormaterialcompanies. Datacenters(e.g.,csPs) growth of63% in Jan-Mar.Capex was $34.9bn in Jul-Sep,$37.5bn in Oct-Dec,$31.9bn in Jan-Mar,and $44.9bninApr-Jun.Alphabetraised2026capexguidancefrom$180bn-$190bnto$195bn-$205bn.Itexpectscapexin2027torise sharplyfrom2026.Free cashflowwas-$5.9bn inApr-Jun.Investment is likelypressurefreecashflowforthetimebeing. Implicationsforcoveragecompanies:Alphabetisexpandingcapexfurther.However,wenotepressureonfreecashflowfromaggressiveinvestment.Weseepositivenear-termimplicationsforsemiconductormaterialcompanies,mainlyAl-relatedcompaniessuchasNittoboand JXAdvancedMetals. Housing (Us) Lennar(June13):Newordersfell4%YoYto21,700homes inMar-May(guidance21,000-22,000homes; consensus21,600homes).Lennarguidesfornewordersof21,000-22,000homesinJun-Aug(consensus22,600homes).Althoughthereisastructural housing shortage,affordability remains anissue dueto persistently highinterestrates D.R. Horton (July 21): New orders held flat YoY at 23,000 homes in Apr-Jun, missingtheconsensusfor24,200homes.D.R.HortonloweredFY9/26homesclosedguidancefrom86,000-87,500homesto83,800-84,300homes,belowthe (Apr-Jun istypicallyahighdemandperioddueto springdemand).Homebuyersareshowinga cautious stance duetohigherinterestrates and geopoliticaluncertainty. (consensus7,4oohomes).PulteGroupmaintainedfull-yearhomes closedguidancefor28,500-29,000 homes.The market environment remains challenging,butthereare signs of demand stabilizing in some states suchas Florida implicationsarein linewith expectations for Shin-EtsuChemicaland Nippon PaintHoldings (AOC). Life sciences Lonza (July22):Sales grew 16% YoY in Jan-Jun 2026 (local currency basis).MammalianCDMOdemandcontinuestooutpace supply.Manufacturingoutsourcingdemandremainshealthyfrombothmajorpharmaceuticalmakersandmidsizebiotechcompanies(widerangeofdemandfromearlyclinicalstagetocommercialdrugs).LonzamaintainedFY12/26guidanceforsalestogrow11-12%(localcurrencybasis). Implicationsforcoveragecompanies:Wethink healthyCDMOdemandfrombothmajorpharmaceuticalmakers andmidsizebiotechcompaniesisreassuringforcompanies thatprovide CDMO services,including AGC andNittoDenko. Paint AkzoNobel (July22):Organic salesgrew2%YoYinApr-Jun.Thisbreaksdown asvolume flat,pricing +3%,and mix -1%.For volume trends by region and category(YoY),Europedecorativepaintsfell in low singledigits(%)in Jan-Marand in midsingledigits(%)inApr-Jun,Southeast Asia decorativepaintsrose in high singledigits (%) in Jan-Mar and in mid single digits (%)in Apr-Jun, China decorativepaints rose in mid single digits (%) in Jan-Mar but fell in mid single digits (%) in Apr-Jun, and industrial coatings fell in low single digits (%) in Jan-Mar but rose in lowsingle digits (