美国半导体及半导体设备行业夏季回调；基本面完好 偏好半导体设备股而非芯片股

We view the SOX pullback on surging oil prices, rising bond yields, and Alspending concernsasabuyingopportunity.Fundamentally,datacenterremainsthestrongestendmarket(34%ofsemiTAM)andisontracktoAutoand Industrial(21%),whiledemandfromPCs,handsets,andconsumerelectronics(42%)continuestoweakenduetomemorycostinflationandsupplyconstraints(seeFigure2).Werecapkeyhighlightsestimatesforcompaniesthatreported increased4%/7%onaverage,whileEPSestimatesrose7%/8%.Weprefersemicapstosemisonhigherestimaterevisionsdrivenbycapexincreases +1-415-951-1892atif.malik@citi.comKelsey Chia, CFA +1-415-9511791kelsey.chia@citi.com Elizabeth Sun, CFA+1-212-816-3308elizabeth.sun@citi.com Adrienne Colby+1-212-816-8975adrienne.colby@citi.com INTC/TSMC/TSLACapexOutlookAIl VeryPositiveforSCE-Intel highlightedmeaningfulfoundryprogressandraised2026capexguidancetoover$20Bnfrom~$18Bnpreviously,drivenprimarilybytoolswith40%YoYgrowth.Intelisaggressivelylockinginequipmentorders,acceleratingclean-roombuildouts,andsecuringkeysubstrateandmemorysupply.Withincreasedconfidenceincustomerdemandacrossmultipleendmarketsandastrongadvancedpackagingbacklog,Intelexpects2027capextobesignificantlyhigherthan2026,withmostinvestmentsdirectedtowardU.S.manufacturing.TSMC,duringitsQ2earningscall,raised2026 capexagain to$60-64Bn fromnearly $56Bn,driven by stronger-than-expectedAldemandandhigherequipmentcosts.Giventhelargesupply/demandgap,managementcommentedthatcapex overthenextthreeyears will besignificantly higherthanthe priorthreeyears and announced an additional$100BninvestmentinArizona(now$265Bntotal),includingroughlyfouradditionalfabs.Teslareiteratedthat2026capexwill exceed $25Bnand continuegrowingoverthenext2-3years,including semiconductormanufacturinginvestments.OnTerafab,managementdisclosedthatequipmentordershavealreadybeenplacedforitsAustindevelopmentfab,andElonMuskindicatedthecompanyexpectstoannouncealocationand providemoredetailed plans soon.On thebackend,Amkorannounceda$1.5Bnmulti-yearpartnershipwithNVIDIAtosupportU.S.advanced packagingcapacity,withNVIDIAprovidingaprepaymentto supporttheexpansion.Amkorpreviouslyoutlinedas7BnArizonainvestmentplan,withPhase1construction underway,HVM beginningin2028,and fullbuildout by2030. AMD Lifts CPUTAM-At AMDAI Day,the companyraised itsData CenterAIAcceleratorTAMforecastfrom~$200Bin2025to~$1.4Tby2030E(>45%CAGR)anditsDataCenterCPUTAMfrom~$26Bto~$220B(>50%CAGR).AMD'sCPUTAM lift is positive for INTC. SeeAppendixA-1forAnalyst Certification,ImportantDisclosures and ResearchAnalyst Affiliations GoogleCapexPositiveforNetworking&Compute-With its Jun-Qresults,GOOGLraised itsoutlookforFY26capexby$15Bnatthemidpoint,asdemandforcapacitycontinuestoaccelerateandhighercomponentpricingpushesupthecompany'stechnical infrastructurespend.ProjectedFY26capexin therangeof$195-205Bn ismorethan2xFY25spendof$91Bnand ahead ofCiti'sprior$190Bnoutlook.Importantly,GOOGLreiteratedpriorexpectations forFY27capexto“increasesignificantly."WenoteJun-Qcapexof~$45Bn,up100%Y/Ywassplit60%/40%betweencompute/datacentersandnetworking.Weview GOoGL'scapex outlookpositivelywith regards tothebroaderhyperscale spending environment andspecificallyfor CLS,AVGO,and NVDAin our coverage. AnalogCommentary:TXNandSTMbothreportedabroad-basedrecoverywithIndustrial revenueuproughly3O%YoY,Automotiveupmid-teensYoY,and Personal Electronics uphigh-single digits YoY.Aldata centerbuildouts and newpowerarchitectures are emerging as incrementaldrivers ofanalog demand,withTxN's Data Centerbusiness expectedto double YoYto $3.1Bn in 2026 and STM raising its targets to $1Bn in 2026 and $2Bn in 2027,roughly double prior expectations.STMreportedtighteningsupplyconditionsandlengthening leadtimes,whileTxNleveragesitsmanufacturingcapacitytothrough 2026.We seethe read as positivefor ADI, MCHP, NXPl, and ON. CompaniesMentioned:Analog Devices(ADI.0;US$380.2;1;23 Jul26;16:00)/BroadcomInc(AVG0.O;US$392.47;1;23Jul26;16:00)/Celestica (MCHP.0;US$81.35;1;23Jul26;16:00)INVIDIACorp(NVDA.O;US$208.76;1;23Jul26;16:00)/NXPSemiconductorsNV(NXPl.O;US$277.29;1;23Jul26;16:00)/ONSemiconductor(ON.O;US$90.13;2;23Jul26;16:00) US+1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 The researchanalystsprimarilyresponsibleforthepreparation and content ofthisresearch reportareeither(i)designated by"Ac"intheauthorblockor(ii)listed inboldalongsidecontentwhichisattributabletothatanalyst.IfmultipleACanalystsare designated in the authorblock,eachanalystis certifying with respecttotheentire researchreportotherthan(a)contentattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystlistedinboldalongsidethecontentand(b)viewsexpressedsolelyratinghistorytablesforthatissuershownbelow.Eachoftheseanalystscertify,withrespecttothesectionsofthereportforwhichtheyareresponsible:(1)thattheviewsexpressedthereinaccuratelyreflecttheirpersonalviewsabouteachissuerandsecurityreferencedandwereprepared inanindependentmanner,includingwithrespecttoCitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.anditsaffiliates;and(2)nopartoftheresearchanalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwill be,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothe