尿素周报：内需偏弱，海外价格企稳反弹，关注出口动态

市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1758元/吨（-1）；河南小颗粒市场价1760元/吨（+10）；山东小颗粒市场价1760元/吨（+0）；江苏小颗粒市场价1760元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤1130元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差2元/吨（+1）；河南尿素基差2元/吨（+11）；江苏尿素基差2元/吨（+11）；尿素生产利润-36.0元/吨（+0.0）；出口利润664.2元/吨（+2.4）。 供应端：截至2026-07-26，企业产能利用率89.09%（-0.82%）；企业厂内库存为153.2万吨（+12.3）；港口库存为15.7万吨（-5.8）。 需求端：截至2026-07-26，复合肥产能利用率31.30%（-2.11%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为52.07%（-6.4%）；尿素企业预收订单天数4.71日（-0.1）。 市场分析 地缘情绪扰动，现货低价成交好转后，部分厂家上调报价成交放缓，但再受出口消息扰动新单成交好转。国际地缘冲突再起，海外尿素价格企稳反弹，出口流速后续或逐步改善，但受印度招标推迟至8月的影响，短期出口放量后延。供应端，尿素开工率小幅提升，同比处于高位。需求侧农业追肥已进入尾声，但局部农需与出口订单采购仍在持续；复合肥开工小幅下降，山东、河南等地走货一般，下调负荷；三聚氰胺开工小幅下降，终端处于消费淡季，对原料尿素维持刚需采购。库存方面，内需减弱，终端提货意愿下降，部分企业出口订单仍处于备货待发状态，厂内库存本周继续累积；港口库存则部分货源离港而小幅去库。当前出口消息扰动仍较强，出口窗口期内备货需求叠加刚需采购将对尿素价格形成底部支撑，但近期采购未能形成持续性放量，后市重点关注出口兑现情况以及下游采购节奏。 策略单边：震荡跨期：观望跨品种：无 风险 出口政策变动、下游采购情绪 目录 一、价格与价差.........................................................................................................................................3二、上游供应............................................................................................................................................5三、下游需求............................................................................................................................................6四、尿素库存............................................................................................................................................7 图表 图1：尿素小颗粒山东市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图2：尿素小颗粒河南市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图3：尿素主力合约价格走势....................................................................................................................................................3图4：尿素01合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图5：尿素05合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图6：尿素09合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图7：1-5价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图8：5-9价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图9：9-1价差...............................................................................................................................................................................4图10：尿素山东主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图11：尿素河南主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：尿素江苏主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：尿素周度产量..................................................................................................................................................................5图14：尿素产能利用率..............................................................................................................................................................5图15：尿素气制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图16：尿素煤制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图17：尿素生产成本..................................................................................................................................................................5图18：尿素生产利润..................................................................................................................................................................5图19：复合肥开工率..................................................................................................................................................................6图20：三聚氰胺开工率..............................................................................................................................................................6图21：尿素待发订单天数..........................................................................................................................................................6图22：中国小颗粒FOB.........................................................