NextEra Energy 2026年第二季度财报解读及股价目标上调

+1917 344 8503sunaina.ocalan@bernsteinsg.com +1917344 8306anshika.bajpai@bernsteinsg.com +1 917 344 8355raphael.lee@bernsteinsg.com ONEE NextEra Energy (NEE) Q2 26: Firing on all cylinders - large loadtariffs at FPL, strong origination at NEER NEE delivered a thesis-affirming Q2, with adj.EPS of $1.15,ahead ofconsensus at $1.13,$3.92-$4.02.The results reinforce our view thatNEEis among the best positioned U.Sutilities tobenefit fromaccelerating data center driven power demand. Large-load demandatFPL:21GWof large-load interest, ofwhich12GW in advancediscussions, and 8GW in development expectations by 2032 (updated from 6GW).Management expects to announceat leastone large-load transaction atFPLbythe endof the year. NEER Origination:Added 3.6GW of renewables and storage origination in the quarter, Progress on the Dominion merger continues, with regulatory filings and shareholdermeetings advancing as expected; expected close in H22027. Positives from thequater: Adj.EPS beat, reaffirmation of 2026 and LT guidance, increasedvisibility into large-load demand, continue strength in NEE recontracting Negatives:Noguidanceraisedespite trackingabove the 8%adj.EPSgrowth target Weraise ourpricetargetslightlyfrom$107to$108,reflecting ourupdated estimatesfollowingtheQ226results. InvestmentImplications Weremain Outperform onNEE,with an updated price targetof $108 (old $107) FPL reported Q2 adj. EPS of $.067,in line with consensus estimates and up 8.1% y/y.Capex was ~$2.8 billion in Q2,and full- Reliability is more than 60% better than the national average. NEERreported Q2adj.EPSof $0.62,aboveconsensus of$0.59andup17%y/y.The segmentadded3.6GWof renewables and storage origination in the quarter, including 2GW of battery storage, bringing total backlog to 35.1GW from 33GW in Q1. capability rather than just energy production, which fits better with current utility and hyperscaler needs. Recontracting also remained constructive.Since theQ1 earnings call,NEER recontracted more than 500 MW of existingprojects at an average premium of roughly $20/Mwh above recent realized pricing and with average terms of ~5 years, provingthat the operating fleet can roll off legacy contracts without suffering a material value reset. Othernotableupdates: :Duane Arnold remains on track to return no laterthan Q12029,thelowa Utilities Commission approveda generatingcertificate, and NEER acquired the remaining minority interest, becoming the sole owner of the project. :NextEra Energy Transmission energized a 137-mile,345-kVtransmission line in NewMexico ahead of schedule andonbudget, and MisO selected the company as part of a consortiumfortwolarge-scale 765-kV llinois transmission projects. DATA-CENTERHUBS NEERnow has 3O potential hubs under discussion and expects to reach 40 byyear-end.Four different origination channels(hyperscalers, investor-owned utilities, co-ops and municipal utilities,and federal partners) supporting a base case of 15 Gw of DOMINION:REGULATORYPATHISNOWTHEFOCUS On July15,the companies filed for approval with the Virginia State Corporation Commission,theNorth Carolina UtilitiesCommission, and the Public Service Commission of South Carolina; they also filed with FERC and the NRC, and the S-4 becameeffective on July23. Management still targets an H2 2027close for the merger.The company reiterated the long-term combined-companygrowthof~11% in regulatory capital employed through 2032 and 9%+ adjusted EPS through 2032, with a 9%+target through 2035 WHATMATTERSNEXT ·EvidenceofconversionofFPL's12GWofadvanceddiscussionsintosignedcustomercommitments ·ContinuedmomentuminNEER'sbackloggrowthandrecontracting :ContinuedprogressonDominionapprovalswithoutincrementalconcessions O- Outperform, M -Market-Perform, U-Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage Suspended Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis References to "Bernstein" or the"Firm" in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC 2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，Sanford C.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordAfrica Technologies &Services toproduce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Societe Generale. otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures,references to Bernstein's“"affiliates"relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. EBITDAmultiple onNEER2027-28 EBITDAof $12.1Bto arrive ata combinedtargetprice of $108/sh. RISKS NextEra Energy Inc growthdampeningNEERgeneration,andsupplychain risksfrom higherthanexpectedtariff exposure. RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernsteinbrand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S.and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges a