亚洲生物制药夏季研讨会：GLP-1及代谢管理新方法

Asia Biopharma Summer Teach-in: GLP-1 and new approaches tometabolic management The obesity market is entering its next phase, where competition extends beyondweight loss efficacy.While next-generation injectable therapies have pushed placebo-adjusted weight loss beyond 20%, differentiation is increasingly shifting toward broadermetabolic benefits, lean mass preservation, and convenience. We believe future winners willnot only deliver superior weight reduction but also address cardiovascular, renal, liver, andbody composition outcomes. Rebecca Liang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2656rebecca.liang@bernsteinsg.com Ellie Li+852 2123 2621ellie.li@bernsteinsg.com Oral GLP-1s and long-acting therapies are expanding the treatment toolbox.Whileinjectable therapies continue to provide the strongest efficacy, oral GLP-1s are creating acompelling alternative for patients seeking easier administration and moderate weight loss.Lilly's Foundayo (orforglipron) and Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide have demonstratedthat oral therapies can achieve approximately 10% weight loss, which may be sufficientfor many patients. Foundayo's small-molecule design provides additional conveniencebecause it avoids the strict fasting requirements associated with peptide-based oralsemaglutide. Among China-based programs, Innovent's IBI3032 has emerged as a notablecontender after delivering placebo-adjusted weight loss of 8.6% in only four weeks, whileweekly oral candidate IBI3042 highlights the industry's broader push toward reducingdosing frequency without sacrificing efficacy. Miki Sogi, Ph.D.+81 3 6777 6991miki.sogi@bernsteinsg.com Tian Tan+81 3 6777 6976tian.tan@bernsteinsg.com Emerging modalities aim to extend durability beyond traditional GLP-1 therapies. Antibody-peptide conjugates (APCs), circRNA therapeutics, and gene therapies are beingdeveloped to achieve monthly dosing or potentially long-lasting metabolic control followinga single administration. Amgen's MariTide provides the most advanced proof-of-concepttoday, while Chinese innovators including Innovent and PegBio are actively buildingexposure to these next-generation platforms. Despite pricing pressure, we continue to project a ~CNY85bn China GLP-1 marketby 2030E.Despite accelerated price erosion and increasing regulatory scrutiny aroundobesity-drug prescribing, underlying demand remains robust. We have revised our marketassumptions to reflect lower long-term pricing but higher penetration and a broader eligiblepopulation, resulting in an unchanged estimate of approximately CNY85bn for the ChinaGLP-1 market by 2030E. A major launch wave beginning in 2027 should further expandpatient access and accelerate market penetration. In our view, the industry's next stage ofgrowth will be driven by a combination of efficacy, metabolic benefits, body composition,convenience, and affordability rather than any single attribute alone. Note: Eli Lilly and Amgen are covered by Courtney Breen, Novo Nordisk is covered by JustinSmith. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate BeOne, Hansoh, Innovent, Hengrui, and Kelun-Biotech Outperform, and Akeso, CSPC, SBP, and Zai Lab Market-Perform. DETAILS Traditionally, discussion around GLP-1 therapies has been dominated by clinical efficacy, safety, and commercial adoption.However, as the category expands beyond early adopters and moves toward a broader obesity and metabolic health market, itis equally important to understand how consumers themselves evaluate these products. To prepare for this GLP-1 teach-in, wereviewed a range of patient and consumer preference research and identified several themes that consistently emerge as themost important factors influencing treatment choice. First, weight-loss efficacy remains the single most important attribute.Multiple studies suggest that patients are willingto tolerate, at least in the short term, gastrointestinal side effects if doing so translates into meaningfully greater weight loss. Inother words, once safety is considered acceptable, efficacy often becomes the primary determinant of preference. This reflectsthe reality that many patients view weight reduction as the core therapeutic objective and are willing to make trade-offs toachieve better outcomes (source). Second, consumers are increasingly focusing on metabolic and body composition benefits.Broader metabolic andbody composition benefits are receiving increased attention. Metrics such as lean mass preservation, visceral fat reduction,and overall quality of weight loss are becoming important differentiators as consumers seek healthier and more sustainableoutcomes rather than simply maximizing pounds lost (source1, source2). Finally, convenience.Oral therapy has been an evolution after traditional subcutaneous forms, and companies are alsoexploring long-acting agents. Based on these themes, our GLP-1 teach-in will focus on these key areas that may shape the nextphase of competition within the GLP-1 landscape. PART 1: WEIGHT LOSS