ServiceNow2026年第二季度业绩：超预期且指引上调回归

ONOW ServiceNow (NOW) Q2'26: beats and raises are back?!? dimensions-Q1 left some investors worrying about the beat/raise cadence,the strengthofcore demand,inorganic driven growth,and perceived low Q2 organic cRPO guide.Instead,Q2delivereda strong23ObpsCC SubscriptionRevenuebeatvs.guide.Aportion ofthatbeat camefrom on-premise earlyrenewals (driven byurgency/ demandfor Alcontrol towerand Al and Risk products), which have a smaller FY raise impact (as it just time shifted fromQ3),but the remainder was a clean ratable ACV beat that was read through as araise totheFYguide. In addition, Q3 cRPO guide was another strong QoQ increase andno longerlighter than it would have been otherwise given the pull-forward of the on-premise renewalsintoQ2.Managementemphasizedtheyarekeeping a conservative H2guide,butdemandremains strong,and thismakes them confident they can keepdelivering a beat/raise. Intra-quarter"noise"about customerswaspartiallyhandled,partiallyan openquestion.In the quarterthere was news from one large customer, Sanofi,bragging aboutmovingtoDiYthroughthebreadthoftheirvendorsoftware,includingServiceNowManagement pointed out this remains rare,and they are already seeing signals that portionsof this planare being pulled back.Secondly,weasked aboutthe"noiseweheard from CiOsand channel checks on ServiceNow'snewSkU lineup-customers complainedapriceincrease was being forced on them.Management was surprised, as their SkU lineup is not aforcedmove-customersarewelcometostayontheirexistingSkUsatthesamepricewithnormal upgrade cadence and support. In fact, they pointed out that at the Pro Plus level thatit is a FREE upgrade. They wondered if this might be the result of some over-zealous salespeople and promised to do some internal research and report back what they find. InvestmentImplications Slight changes inQ3 revenuedue topullforwardof on-premise contract renewals,andasmall increase inQ4+model based onbeat. Lowered GMbased on guidance,andraisedtaxrateto30% (lowerSBC benefit).Usingour50/50Ro40-basedmultiples regression(~13x P/NTM revenue), and DCF (~9.6%WACC vs. ~10% in Q1 due to+$6B debt raise,3%terminal growth) we raise our PT to $248 and maintain our Outperform rating. Q2cRPOoutperformancewasdrivenbyamixof stronger-than-expectedearlyrenewalsandbroad-basednewAcV strength.Roughly half ofthecRPO beat was early renewals coming in above expectation andtheotherhalf tobetter-than-expected net new AcV performance.Importantly,the elevated early renewals were notrelatedto pricing changes,but werereasonableestimate.Forthefull year subscriptionrevenueguidance,thenetnew ACV outperformance in Q2wasfullypassedthrough to the guidance while the beat from early renewal wasmore a timing shift of revenue from Q3 into Q2. pullingthroughadditional platform demand.While investorsremain focused on the contribution from recent acquisitions,managementemphasizedthatorganicperformanceis stabilizingandthat products suchas Moveworksand Armis areenhancing,ratherthan replacing,core platform demand.For example, Employee Works and Moveworks are now tightlyintegrated with Moveworks being the front door for user interface. Armis and security offerings are also driving incrementaladoption across thebroaderplatform,resulting in stronger commercialtraction thantypically seen this early afteran acquisition. Armis contributedslightly over10% of Q2cRPObeat andthe beat inQ2Armisrevenue was flowed through to thefullyear guidance. But because the size of the beat was relatively small, the rounded full year revenue benefit from Armis stillhelping accelerate core securitygrowth through bundled solutions spanning exposuremanagement, identitygovernance,Algovernance,and workflowautomation,anddrivingdemand forproducts like SecOps and Al Control Towerwiththebetter-together platform pitch. Public sector demand remains strong,withAl,security,and riskmanagement drivingincreased customerengagement. Management highlighted a materially improved federal budget environment relative to last year,alongside strong momentumacrossfederal,state,local,and education customers.Demand is increasinglycentered around Al governance,cybersecurity,andoperationalresilience. The existing SKUs are not being retired yet and customers retain full flexibility under the new Al packagingframework.Managementpushedback onperceptionsthatthe newAlbundles representmandatorypriceincreases,reiterating that existing customers can renew their current packages.The company later also clarified that existing SkUs willcontinuetogetfeatureupdates andnewfunctionality,so customers won'tbeforced tomoveto thenewAl-native SkUs. Managementbelieves domainexpertiseandproprietaryworkflowcontextremainkeycompetitiveadvantages inenterprise Al. While investors continue to question whether frontier Al model providers could movefurther into applicationsoftware,management argued that enterprise automation requires deepdomainknowledge, workflow orchestration,governance,maintenance,andoperationalcontextthat are d