百胜中国（9987.HK）2026年二季度预览：符合指引，期待债务融资及天气影响更多细节

RatingBuy AsiaChina Reuters9987.HK Bloomberg9987 HK ConsumerRestaurants Pre-2Q: in line with guidance, Expect morecolor on debt financing and weather impact Han ZhangResearch Analyst+852-2203-5802 Expectations for 2Q26 release YumChina (YUMC) will report 2Q26 results on July 30 at 7:00PM(HKT).Factoring in the2Q26 guidance, we expect YUMC’stotal revenueandOP toincrease bymid-single digits (MSD)and high-single digits (HSD)YoY in 2Q26(FX-neutral), respectively, with net income ataround$230-240mn. •We expect company-levelSSSGto increaseslightlyby 1% YoYwithapproximately 400-500 new store openings in 2Q26. •Restaurant marginmay slightly drop by 0.3ppt YoYprimarilydue tolabour cost pressure,giventhedelivery mixYoY, particularly in 1H, maystillincrease.However, we anticipate ongoing savings inoccupancy &other cost, supported byYUMC’sfocus on negotiating and loweringrental cost for new andexisting stores. •Despite restaurant margin pressure, we expectOP margintoremainstableYoY,protected by YUMC’s continuous focus on operationalefficiency improvements. What towatchforat theresults analyst briefing •Regarding the$1.2bnPizza Hut Chinabrand ownership acquisition, weexpectfurtherdetailsonthe debt financingplanand YUMC’s strategy toprotect its cash position afterwards. •The unfavourable weathersince late June(e.g. flood inGuangxiandheavy precipitationacrosssouthern andnorthern regions)hasbroadlyaffectedconsumption,based on our channel checks. We expectYUMCto commentonthe impactonpeak seasonsales andstore operations. Company updates •KFC launchediced products campaign“KeepFridayCool”eachFridaystarting July 10,withasingleiceditemforRMB6.5andtwoiceditemsfor RMB9.9 among11 selectedproductsandacombo of oneiced itemand onesnack (includingeitherfried chickenproductsor egg tart)forRMB11.5.The promotion applies across dine-in,self pick-up,anddelivery channels. •We noted that YUMCisstrategicallydiversifyingitsproductSKUstomitigateraw materialcost pressure. For example,thebeef pricelevel T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaT2se3r0Ot6kwoPaIMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. Deutsche Bank does andseeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflictof interest thatcould affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making theirinvestment decision. remainshigh(up 14%in 1Qand 6%in2QYoY),whilethepork pricehasdecreasedby around20%in 1H(per Wind)andshrimp/crayfishpriceshaveseenmeaningfuldeclinesYTD(pernews flow).In response,KFChaslaunchedvariouscrayfishand shrimpproducts,and V-BURGERintroduced apork burgerfromJune. •Updates on KFC and PZH brand extensions: based on news flow,1)V-BURGERhastopped200 storesacross 28 citiesnationwide; and2)KPRO hasexpanded to300+storesas oflate May(vs.end-2026 target:600 stores). Valuation: PT intact at HKD476.00;ReiterateBuy Based onour market interactions, we thinkthatboth onshore and offshoreinvestorscurrently show a relative preference for low-valuation&high-shareholder-return China consumer stocks amidst the AI investment hype.YUMC, with~10%shareholder returnand currently trading at14x2026E P/E(over 1SDbelowits3-yearhistorical average),hasreboundedbyaround10%sincelate June.We keep our forecasts unchanged for now and willfine-tuneourearnings forecasts post YUMC's 2Q26 results. Appendix 1 Important Disclosures Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subjectcompanies, and other sources. Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators 2-Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) may act as a market maker or liquidity provider in the financial instrumentsissued by this company. Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. Regulators 2-Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) may act as a market maker or liquidity provider in the financial instrumentsissued by this company. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of thisresearch, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on ourwebsite athttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures. Aside from within this report,important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found athttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). Inaddition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specificrecommendation or view in thisreport. Han Zhang. Historical recommendations and target price:Yum China(9987.HK)