百胜中国2026年二季度业绩及相关事项研究

RatingBuy China 9987.HK Restaurants Pre-2Q: in line with guidance, Expect morecolor on debt financing and weather impact ResearchAnalyst+852-2203-5802 Expectations for 2Q26 releaseYum China (YUMC) will report 2Q26 results on July 30 at 7:00PM (HKT) Factoring in the 2Q26 guidance, we expect YUMC's total revenue and OP to(FX-neutral),respectively,with net income at around $230-240mn. We expect company-level SssG to increase slightly by 1% YoY withapproximately400-500newstoreopeningsin2Q26. Restaurant margin may slightly drop by 0.3ppt YoY primarily due tolabour costpressure,giventhedeliverymixYoY,particularlyin1H,maystill increase.However, we anticipate ongoing savings in occupancy &other cost, supported by YUMC's focus on negotiating and loweringrental costfornewand existing stores.Despite restaurant margin pressure, we expect OP margin to remainstableYoY,protectedbyYUMC's continuous focusonoperationalefficiencyimprovements. Whattowatchforattheresultsanalystbriefing Regarding the $1.2bn Pizza Hut China brand ownership acquisition, weexpect further details on the debt financing plan and YUMC's strategy toprotect its cash position afterwards. The unfavourableweather since late June (e.g.flood in Guangxi andheavy precipitation across southern and northern regions) has broadlyto comment on the impact on peak season sales and store operations. Companyupdates KFC launched iced products campaign "Keep Friday Cool" each Fridaystarting July10, with a single iced item for RMB6.5 and two iced itemsforRMB9.9among11selectedproductsandacomboofoneiceditemand one snack (including either fried chicken products or egg tart) forRMB11.5. The promotion applies across dine-in, self pick-up, anddelivery channels. We noted that YUMC is strategically diversifying its product SKUs tomitigate raw material cost pressure. For example, the beef price level IMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.DeutscheBankdoes andseeks todo businesswithcompanies covered in its researchreports.Thus, investors should be aware that the firmmay have a conflictof interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making theirinvestmentdecision. decreased by around 20% in 1H (per Wind) and shrimp/crayfish priceshave seen meaningful declines YTD (per news flow).In response,KFChas launched various crayfish and shrimp products, and V-BURGERintroduced a pork burger from June. BURGER has topped 200 stores across 28 cities nationwide; and 2)600 stores). Valuation:PT intactatHKD476.00;ReiterateBuyBased on our market interactions, we think that both onshore and offshore investors currently show a relative preference for low-valuation & high-shareholder-returnChina consumer stocks amidst the Al investment hype.YUMC,with~10% shareholder return and currentlytradingat 14x2026EP/E(over 1 SD below its 3-year historical average), has rebounded by around 10%since late June.We keep our forecasts unchanged for now and will fine-tune ourearningsforecastspostYUMC's2Q26results. Yum China Holings Ino. is a spin-off entiy ofEBITDA Yum! Brands (YUMN) which is listed in the US. Thecompany operates over 14,000 restaurants in ChinaThe compang has the esclusive right to operate andsub-license the KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bellbrands in China. Yum China also operates theNet interest income(espense)restaurant brands Little Sheep and Huang Ji Huang.Associatesiaffliatesand coffee shop brand Lavazza. Appendix 1 Prices are current as of theend of theprevious trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and othervendors.Otherinformation is sourced fromDeutsche Bank, subjectcompanies,andothersources. ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyU.S.Regulators issued by this company. ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-U.S.Regulators2 -Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) may act as a market maker or liquidity provider in the financial instruments issued bythis company. research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on ourwebsite at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures. Aside from within this report,important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. AnalystCertification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). Inaddition,the undersigned leadanalyst(s)has notandwill not receive any compensationforproviding a specificrecommendation orview in this report.Han Zhang. DBSI Companies under CoverageBuyHold Company Rating and Dispersion Key The above table provides a snapshot of Deutsche Bank's company research rating distribution across our coveredcompanies.Wealso present thepercentageof companieswhere DeutscheBankhasprovided